Chart Review: The Slow Decline of iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)

The Federal Reserve’s expressed desire for quantitative easing and Operation Twist has been to lower long-term interest rates. The response to the announcement of QE3 on September 13th has not yet generated lower interest rates except for a brief moment. The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) is one way to play long-term … Read more

Little New News from Jackson Hole But Market Readies for Action Anyway

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 3, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) “…the private sector’s revised outlook for the policy rate also appears to reflect a growing appreciation of how forceful the FOMC intends to be in supporting a sustainable recovery.” (Ben Bernanke … Read more

Chart Review: Gold Finally Breaks Out, TLT Cracks Resistance

While writing about the attractive price of Pan American Silver (PAAS) and the seemingly imminent breakoout for silver (SLV), I neglected to note that SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has already broken out from its extended downtrend. This move is of course inspired by Ben Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech. At the same time the market anticipates … Read more

Time to Hedge A Little As Homebuilders Surge to Multi-Year Milestones

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 19, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In 2010, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) rallied sharply only to peak in parabolic fashion in April. That Fall, I reaffirmed my belief that housing would bounce along the bottom … Read more

Japanese Yen and Volatility Sit At the Cusp Of Renewed Risk Aversion

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 22, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Thursday was a good day for the dollar index (UUP) as it experienced one of its strongest one-day rallies of the year. {snip} While the dollar’s rally was indeed impressive, I … Read more

T2108 Update (May 31, 2012) – Still Flirting With Oversold

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 24.4% (Last oversold period … Read more

Step Aside British Pound, The Japanese Yen Is Back As the Safety Currency Of Choice

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 20, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I have written about my skepticism regarding the British pound’s newly found “safe haven” status (for example, see “Hard Currency: My Reactions To The Financial Times’ Promising Podcast“). During my last … Read more

Chart Review: TBT’s Bottom Already In Jeopardy

Almost a month ago I made another case for a bottom in TBT, the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury. The related breakout include some large, upward one-day moves. The churn included a convincingly successful retest of presumed support at the upper channel that formed the consolidation pattern for TBT’s bottom. Alas, that was not enough … Read more

Chart Review: Looks Like A Bottom for TBT

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 14, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) For the past few years, trying to call a top in Treasurys has been a fool’s game. From the manipulation of the Federal Reserve to fears of deflation to fears of … Read more

T2108 Update – October 31, 2011 (Revenge of the VIX)

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 82% (sixth day of … Read more