T2108 Update (September 22, 2014) – A Bearish Chill

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Don’t Overplay the Recovery In Iron Ore Prices

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 7, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Back in September, one of the big stories was the plunge in iron ore prices to three-year lows around $87/ton. With prices down over 50% from the record high of $191/ton … Read more

The QE2 Reference Price Identifies the Strongest Iron Ore and Metallurgical Coal Plays

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 16, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week, I demonstrated how the timing of QE2 provided a useful reference point for buying Freeport-McMoran (FCX) as part of a coming revision of the commodity crash playbook. In this … Read more

2012 Will Begin with Several Candidate Trades for the Commodity Crash Playbook

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 28, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Federal Reserve’s second phase of quantitative easing (QE2) is slowly becoming a distant memory…{snip} The stark contrast between winning and losing stocks (S&P 500 index versus many commodity stocks) leaves … Read more

Commodities Crash: Stocks that Have Erased QE2 gains

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) In Tuesday’s statement on monetary policy, the Federal Reserve decided to reassure markets that interest rates are likely to stay at “exceptionally low levels” at least through the middle of 2013…{snip}…This dramatic change in the … Read more