ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro/Summary In several posts on the housing market, I made the case for a top in the stocks of home builders and pointed out the parallel weaknesses in the housing data. Last week, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) appeared to confirm what looks like a triple top in the index. Not … Read more
The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) has essentially reversed its entire breakdown that began in October. ITB is now up 24.4% for the year and up 30.9% from the December low. These gains outpace the S&P 500’s (SPY) rebound of 15.2% for the year and 22.8% since the December low. This out-performance means that … Read more
Leading Signs of Housing Troubles I now look forward to the earnings calls from Redfin (RDFN). The company’s management provides direct and timely information on the health of the housing market. Recall that it was Redfin in mid-August 2018 that sounded an early alarm on the housing market at a time when many in the … Read more
AT40 = 60.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 58.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.0 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Last week the stock market made history by delivering the longest bull market in history. Tonight on Nightly Business Report, markets are … Read more
AT40 = 55.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.6 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The recovery from the February swoon has been full of nearly predictable bounces: whether it was oversold trading conditions or support at … Read more