Above the 40 (February 6, 2018) – An Overbought Stock Market Conveniently Taps Resistance

AT40 = 84.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (9th overbought day)AT200 = 37.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (3-month high)VIX = 15.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I described the contours of this overbought market in the context of the … Read more

Above the 40 (February 1, 2019) – An Overbought Stock Market Aspires to Test 200DMA Resistance

AT40 = 83.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (6th overbought day)AT200 = 34.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 2-month high)VIX = 16.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Starting in November or so, I developed an expectation for a January sell-off based in anticipation of earnings warnings … Read more

Above the 40 (January 25, 2019) – Stock Market Completes A 1-Week Roundtrip Back to Overbought

AT40 = 76.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st overbought day)AT200 = 28.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 2-month high)VIX = 17.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary It was just a week ago when the stock market surged to overbought levels in a bullish move. AT40 … Read more

Above the 40 (January 18, 2019) – Index Breakouts Propel the Stock Market Into Overbought Territory

AT40 = 76.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st day overbought)AT200 = 27.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (6-week high)VIX = 17.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary I noted in my last post that the signs of exhaustion in the major indices gave way to more … Read more

Above the 40 (January 16, 2019) – Financials and Small Caps Pushing Market the Last Mile to Overbought

AT40 = 61.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (near 5-month high)AT200 = 23.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (1-month high)VIX = 19.0Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The signs of exhaustion in the major indices have given way to more and more breakouts. Most importantly, AT40 … Read more

Above the 40 (January 11, 2019) – A Stock Market of Parallel Exhaustion and Breakouts

AT40 = 52.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (4-month high)AT200 = 22.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (4-week high)VIX = 18.2 (5-week low)Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The major indices are still showing signs of exhaustion, but the sellers have yet to wrest back control … Read more

Above the 40 (January 9, 2019) – Stocks Make Important Breakouts Even As Indices Face Major Tests

AT40 = 46.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1-month high)AT200 = 20.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (3-week high)VIX = 20.0Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary Just as the last oversold period exceeded expectations to an extreme downside, the rebound out of the oversold period is … Read more

Above the 40 (January 2, 2019) – A Fighting Start for Stocks Gets Apple Pie in the Yen

AT40 = 11.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #12)AT200 = 12.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 23.2Short-term Trading Call: bullish (with caveats all over again) Commentary $AUDJPY $AUDUSD $GBPJPY flash crashed. Could this ALL be #forex fallout from $AAPL revenue warning!?! pic.twitter.com/WZS10wj7D9 — … Read more

Above the 40 (December 28, 2018) – A Day of Relative Rest as the Stock Market Limps Away from 2018

AT40 = 8.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #10)AT200 = 11.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 28.3Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Trading is finally calming down a bit. From its high of the day to its low of the day, the S&P 500 … Read more

Above the 40 (December 26, 2018) – Oversold Chronicles: Stock Market Delivers Major Reprieve for the Post-Trump Reversal

AT40 = 6.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #8)AT200 = 11.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 30.4 (down 15.7%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Pick your favorite catalyst or explanation. I am sure there is good news (or the absence of bad news) out … Read more