Historic Oversold Conditions Stretch Into A Bear Market – Above the 40 (March 12, 2020)

AT40 = 1.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (12th oversold day)AT200 = 4.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 75.5 (just short of financial crisis all-time high of 90)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary When I said a persistently elevated volatility index (VIX) warned us … Read more

From the Ashes of A Crash, Key Divergences in Housing-Related Stocks

This week’s market crash and subsequent sharp rebound revealed some key divergences among housing-related stocks. While one more home builder made it to my “do not touch” list, I see even more opportunities. Opportunities iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) To start the week, the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction … Read more

The Fresh Cracks In Housing-Related Stocks

First the good news. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) lost 3.2% on Friday but bounced sharply from the lows of the day. That bounce preserved support at the uptrending 200-day moving average (DMA) and set the stage for a potential higher low that generates a lasting bottom. While, the … Read more

Being Oversold Is Reason Enough for Buying the Stock Market – Above the 40 (March 4, 2020)

AT40 = 17.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (6th oversold day)AT200 = 32.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 32.0Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary Was it a delayed response to the emergency rate cut from the Federal Reserve? Was it the big comeback by … Read more

Animal Spirits in Housing Stocks Trampled by Virus Panic – Housing Market Review (February, 2020)

The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) dropped 13.4% in a week but managed to bounce off its 200DMA support.

Housing Market Intro/Summary The short-term outlook for the housing market is clouded by the current global turmoil generated by the coronavirus. The housing data discussed below were all collected before the virus came to the forefront of the minds of Americans. While demand for housing in the U.S. should remain strong (and certainly times like … Read more