ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in October, 2024? A reckoning that I anticipated finally came in the form of sharply lower prices for the shares of home builders. After resisting rising mortgage rates for a month, the stock market lost its appetite. Earnings have brought a dose of reality … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Another week, another tease for bears. A fade from resistance joined market breadth in flagging bearish signals for the stock market. Yet, bears are hard-pressed to find a good risk/reward entry, especially considering the on-going uptrends for 2024. The latest confounder for bears has been the market’s general ability to ignore rising … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in September, 2024? Existing home sales fell into a deeper downturn while new home sales maintained an uptrend from recent troughs. Rate cuts are helping to bottom out sentiment for builders. However, great anticipation of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve gave way … Read more
Stock Market Commentary In announcing the official end of monetary tightening, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell mentioned some form of the word “recalibration” nine times from his introductory statement to the Q&A portion of the press conference. Specifically, “….it’s a process of recalibrating our policy stance away from where we had it a year ago, … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in August, 2024? Financial markets quickly threw out a major downgrade from Citigroup for the housing sector. Hopes for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve continued to impact both the data and stock prices. While the on-going decline in mortgage rates has failed to … Read more
Stock Market Commentary This year’s Jackson Hole confab hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve delivered for financial markets. In his prepared speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell issued an historic and classic sound bite for all of the history of monetary policy (emphasis mine): “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in July, 2024? July started with a major downgrade from Citigroup for the housing sector. The downgrade at the time confirmed the implications of a bust for the spring selling season. My lamentations about the bust seemed confirmed by further deterioration in the housing … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The latest overbought period lasted two days, a typical duration. However, the start of the period was atypical given the fuel from historic heroics from small cap stocks. The end of the overbought period was remarkable by delivering some of the clearest topping signals of the year. Key indices that soared into … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The NASDAQ is still toppy, but no matter. Small cap stocks are playing the role of super hero. They made a major statement helping to drive market breadth into overbought conditions. These tiny tots turned super hero in historic fashion. Talk about igniting overbought conditions in style! Forget all that talk about … Read more
Question. When an analyst lowers the price target on a stock to a level still substantially higher than the current price, what do you expect to happen? What if that price target comes with a downgrade from buy to neutral? If you answered lower, you win a prize… a discounted price on homebuilder stocks. A … Read more