ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
A month ago, I wrote about the near seasonal pattern of speculators accumulating net long contracts in gold and silver from July troughs to October peaks. THIS year, the speculators started up on schedule but aborted the mission as net longs peaked well ahead of October. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders So seasonal patterns … Read more
AT40 = 68.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (high of 69.4%) AT200 = 57.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.2 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I noted how the stock market bent but stubbornly refused to … Read more
AT40 = 53.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.7 (down 11.5%) Short-term Trading Call: neutral (see below for caveats) Commentary I had no idea that the previous tensions in the stock market fully priced in the … Read more
The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) accomplished a major milestone in the past week: it fully reversed its entire post-election loss in what looks like a major breakout. Source: StockCharts.com Speculators have been rushing back to gold likely in anticipation of these much higher prices. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders Since 2008, here are the … Read more
A year ago, speculators accumulated net long contracts on gold that exceeded anything seen since at least 2008. Starting in late 2015, silver speculators set several such records with the latest set just three months ago. Now, speculators in gold and silver are in full retreat. Net longs seem headed for zero for both precious … Read more
AT40 = 56.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.4 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The Federal Reserve gave the permission to the stock market that I awaited…well, sort of. On Wednesday, June 14, … Read more
I am surprised Fed futures traders still firmly expect a rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve in June. Source: CME FedWatch Tool After the stock market sell-off in the wake of more Trump turmoil, the market pegged the odds of a June rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve at 64.6%. Above 50% means … Read more
Ahead of the May decision on monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve, I concluded that the stars had aligned for a potential (sharp) relief rally for the SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV). In that post, I extrapolated from the market’s waning enthusiasm for two more rate hikes in 2017. … Read more
Market expectations for a June rate hike remain as solid as ever. However, expectations for two more rate hikes in 2017 have wavered. A day ahead of the release of the next decision on monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve, Fed Fund futures pricing in two rate hikes by December (assuming 25 basis point … Read more
AT40 = 47.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 60.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish) Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) ended last week on a sour note. The index hit its first 42 trading day … Read more