ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 27, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) This month’s acceleration in the now 4-year sell-off in commodities seems to indicate that markets are getting serious about bracing for a tightening cycle from the Federal Reserve. I have mainly … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on Feb 25, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) As every other major central bank has done, the Federal Reserve has taken a crack at estimating the economic impact of the collapse in oil prices. In its semi-annual report to … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 9, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Not even another poor jobs report – unemployment rate up from 6.0% to 6.1% and a loss of 29,700 employed persons – could keep the Australian dollar (FXA) down. During the … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 9, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} The most striking feature of the minutes for the mid-March meeting was the Federal Reserve’s very mixed feelings toward the timing for the first rate hike: {snip} There are multiple … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 31, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} This quote was buried in footnote #14 of Janet Yellen’s speech at a research conference called “The New Normal Monetary Policy” sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 16, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) On July 15th, the Federal Reserve released its latest Monetary Policy Report as a part of Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Senate’s Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. The … Read more
The U.S. dollar (UUP) is at 11-month highs. The dollar index is finally showing the strength many expected from the beginning of 2014 in anticipation of strong economic numbers and subsequent rate hikes. The chart above shows that the U.S. dollar index has been on a relative tear since bouncing off its QE3 reference price … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 21, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) “There is no mechanical formula.” This is the response Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave to a reporter who tried to press her on the rules and timing for the first … Read more