A Defiant Fed, Unrelenting Bulls – The Market Breadth

A Defiant Fed, Unrelenting Bulls – The Market Breadth

Stock Market Commentary The Federal Reserve took the stage right after the U.S. presidential election. The Federal Reserve and Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered as expected. The unrelenting bulls had no reason to stop the momentum from the post-election rally. Powell stuck to the Fed’s script and unrelenting bulls kept charging. The uneventful meeting had … Read more

Stock Bulls Taunt Suddenly Hesitant Bears – The Market Breadth

Stock Bulls Taunt Suddenly Hesitant Bears

Stock Market Commentary A decisive end to the extended overbought period signaled the arrival of bearish conditions last week. Bears boldly sold for one more day before a “stock bulls taunt” forced suddenly hesitant bears into a partial retreat. A sharp market divergence is now taking hold. While the major indices rallied off support and … Read more

How to Trade A Bear Market Intrusion On An Oversold Period – The Market Breadth

bear market intrusion

Stock Market Commentary A bear market intrusion upset the dynamics of this oversold period. The NASDAQ is back in bear market territory. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 broke down below their respective 200-day moving averages (DMAs) (the blue line in the charts below) and entered “correction” territory which is 10% below the 52-week … Read more

Rate Cut Cheer Not Yet Enough to Push Stock Market To Overbought – Above the 40 (July 12, 2019)

After a bullish run-up, AT40 (T2108) struggled all week to break through the overbought threshold.

AT40 = 68.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (essentially matches the 2019 high and is a new 10-month high)VIX = 12.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary After the report on June jobs, financial markets got … Read more

High Valuation Hinders W.W. Grainger’s After Historic Post-Earnings Response

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 17, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost two months ago, I wrote about Fastenal (FAST), an industrial and construction supplier, describing the stock as expensive but worth buying at lower prices. Within a month, FAST jumped over … Read more

Rich Valuations Mean Fastenal Has Likely Peaked Short-Term, Buy On Lower Prices

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 18, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) On June 5, 2012, Fastenal (FAST) dropped 9.8% in response to its May sales report. This sharply negative reaction got my attention because Fastenal’s industrial and construction supplies business should be … Read more

Companies Looking for Stabilization In Non-Residential Real Estate Beyond Today’s Continued Poor Performance

I continue to keep tabs on the performance of non-residential (commercial) real estate through the eyes of the companies that service this industry. Unlike previous quarters, earnings reports are a bit more mixed about the condition and outlook for non-residential real estate. Current conditions remain poor, but companies are now straining to see some light … Read more

Earnings Excitement Lifts the Market but Not the Reporting Companies

Excitement over earnings almost trumped technicals today. The S&P 500 tipped over and then faded back ever so slightly from its 50-day moving average (DMA). Earnings news typically trumps technicals, but I was pretty convinced looming overhead resistance would hold firm no matter then news given the weak buying volume coming into today. Buying volume … Read more

Fastenal Bounces Neatly Off Technical Support

After summarizing Fastenal’s dour commentary on non-residential construction, I pointed out that a retest of former resistance would make an attractive entry point on the stock. As planned, I initiated a (swing) trade on Fastenal (FAST) as it probed the 50DMA support over the past several days. Today, FAST bounced off the 50-day moving average … Read more

Fastenal Still Reporting Weakness in Non-Residential Construction

Looking for signs of life in the commercial real-estate (CRE) business has now become an earnings season ritual for me. If construction activity serves as a leading indicator of CRE’s future health, then Fastenal’s report on fourth quarter and annual earnings demonstrates once again that CRE continues to deteriorate, not improve. Fastenal (FAST) reported “…continued … Read more