Brazil’s Big Comeback: EWZ Breaks Out

What a difference three months makes. On May 18th, I wrote “Trading Panic: Rushing Past the Exit from Brazil” to explain why I bought the big dip in iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) after Brazilian President Michel Temer was accused of bribery. I greatly under-estimated the upside opportunity at the time, and I find … Read more

Above the 40 (July 13, 2017) – The S&P 500 Shows Off Again

AT40 = 59.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 58.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The stock market continued its healing process from its last bout of mild indigestion. Most impressive is the S&P 500 … Read more

Above the 40 (June 20, 2017) – Buyers Fail to Follow-Through As the S&P 500 Goes On Notice

AT40 = 52.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The Fed hikes short-term rates, and long-term rates go down. This relationship is not the expected one but is … Read more

Above the 40 (May 19, 2017) – The Nut Job Stock Market: Nutty By Nature

AT40 = 42.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.0 (volatility index) – a 17.9% decrease Short-term Trading Call: neutral (bullish only after the latest Trump Turmoil reverses OR oversold conditions, potentially bearish upon a retest of … Read more

Trading Panic: Rushing Past the Exit from Brazil

Another Presidential-level scandal has engulfed Brazil. On the morning of Thursday, May 18th, news hit the wires that Brazilian President Michel Temer was accused of bribery. The crisis deepened after Brazil’s Supreme Court gave the go-ahead for an investigation into the bribery allegations From Reuters: “Brazil’s President Michel Temer on Thursday defiantly said he would … Read more

The Brazil ETF Continues Adding to A Tremendous 2016 Rally

Almost two months ago, I explained my decision to sell my position in iShares MSCI Brazil Capped (EWZ). I also pointed to a 20% correction as the next time I will consider buying again. Since then, EWZ rallied, dipped slightly to a lower low, and then resumed its current rally. That rally accelerated a bit … Read more

Key Lessons from the Brazil ETF Trade

Back in October, 2009 When Brazil won the 2016 Summer Olympics, I heralded the news as an opportunity to invest in a country that promised to grow faster than the United States. The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped (EWZ) never quite matched its peak from 2008 but managed to ride the wave of a post-recession, commodity … Read more

Finally Stepping In to Start Buying iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 27, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) has fallen rapidly from a 16-month high to a retest of 2014 lows in just seven weeks. The 27% loss over this timespan represents … Read more

Chart Review: the Brazil Index Fund (EWZ) Triggers the 20% Rule Again

This post is a very belated acknowledgement that EWZ (iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF) triggered the 20% rule again. As a reminder, (with a few exceptions) I have been buying EWZ whenever it trades 20% of its recent highs. For example, this rule triggered a purchase in early August; see “Commodities Crash’ Triggers First … Read more

A Review of the Commodities Crash Playbook As Another Phase of Selling Ends

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) Commodities across the board have suffered mightily during the stock market’s recent correction. In the first phase of the sell-off (from late July to early August), a few commodity-related stocks triggered buys by erasing all … Read more