ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
AT40 = 64.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Looks like there was a good reason to wait on flipping my short-term trading call back to (cautiously) bearish. After pointing out … Read more
AT40 = 65.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.7 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Here we are again. The stock market looks like it is breaking free, but there are major caveats which keep me wary … Read more
AT40 = 53.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 45.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.8 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Commentary I was right to be bearish last week…until the very last day when all at once the market reversed almost all … Read more
At the beginning of February, I refreshed my idea to play a top in iron ore with a pairs trade going long Rio Tinto (RIO) and short BHP Billiton (BHP). The timing was fortuitous given it was right before a large sell-off in the stock market. I ended up profitably fading rallies in BHP two … Read more
AT40 = 27.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.3 (drop of 22.9%) Short-term Trading Call: bullish PROLOGUE Valentine’s Day, February 14th, was a great day in the stock market and a fantastic validation of my strategizing … Read more
AT40 = 38.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.3 (28.5% increase!) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary “We cannot tolerate pervasive and persistent misconduct at any bank and the consumers harmed by Wells Fargo expect that robust … Read more
Iron ore may have reached a new inflection point with a price rally coming to a halt in January and some related stocks consolidating near multi-year highs. When I last made an iron ore trade in September, 2017, I was responding to a surprise projection from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that suggested a … Read more
AT40 = 64.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 62.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.8 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The New Year started with fireworks with the S&P 500 (SPY) gapping up to a 0.8% gain and new all-time high. … Read more
The market must be expecting an imminent rebound in the price of iron ore. Almost two weeks ago, I proposed a pairs trade going short Rio Tinto (RIO) versus long BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) as a way to play the top in the price of iron ore predicted by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). … Read more
The list of asset prices that have completely reversed their post-election gains continues to expand. Last week, iron ore officially joined that list…and the sell-off continues apace. On Tuesday night, April 18th, Business Insider reported: “According to Metal Bulletin, the spot price for benchmark 62% fines fell 4.6% to $63.20 a dry tonne, extending its … Read more