Above the 40 (December 7, 2018) – Right Back Where the Stock Market Started, But Worse

AT40 = 25.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 23.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (just off a 32-month low)VIX = 23.2 (as high as 24.7)Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish CommentaryI am surprised the stock market has yet to close in oversold conditions. AT40 (T2108), the … Read more

Above the 40 (November 16, 2018) – A Week-Ending Sigh of Relief As Market Avoids Oversold Conditions

AT40 = 34.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 31.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.1 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The countdown to “hedge fund d-day” is finally behind the market. via GIPHY So far, the results are encouraging while the market … Read more

General Electric’s Removal from the Dow (Re)Exposed the Index’s Key Flaw

The big index news of last week was General Electric (GE) getting dumped by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. The index managers at the Dow picked Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) to replace GE. Source: FreeStockCharts.com I wish the entire Dow index could follow after GE. Traders do not use the Dow for anything … Read more

T2108 Update (November 10, 2016) – Trump Trades: Divergences and Rotations

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

OPEC’s Latest Stumbles Create the Next Opportunity for an Oil-Driven Pairs Trade

In a previous post on the stock market, I noted how commodity-related plays were apparently benefiting from a sagging U.S. dollar index (DXY0). I failed to note that oil was (and is) a glaring exception. Oil futures fell around 9% for the week. This plunge was enough to completely reverse last month’s rally for United … Read more