ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary A bearish divergence is well underway in the stock market. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ rally, a key bearish trading signal persists in market breadth. The previous week, market breadth created a strong bearish signal by slicing below the overbought threshold. This key bearish trading signal was reinforced by last week’s … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Exactly two weeks ago, the stock market fell out of bed. I called the abrupt move the rally’s third strike. However, buyers jumped right back into the fray and overcame that third strike with a rally right to the second to last trading day of the year. So far, the new year … Read more
After Canada experienced a hot inflation print for the month of August (the Consumer Price Index (CPI)), I aggressively declared the Canadian dollar a buy, long Invesco CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC) and short USD/CAD. I ignored the technicals of support at an upward sloping 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line below) on USD/CAD … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week was a time to avoid staring too hard at the day-to-day pricing action. The major indices were pretty much locked into a stalemate. Two breakouts were followed by two breakdowns. From a wider perspective, a stalemate has effectively been in place since mid-August. Despite my expectations, last month’s Jackson hole … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The summer of stocks looks like it is winding down as trading dynamics transition into the stock market’s most dangerous months. The complete reversal of July’s gains on the major indices represents the most ominous sign of the transition. Technology stocks in particular have flipped from rocketships to anchors weighing on the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The summer of loving stocks is staring down its second major test just two weeks after its first major test. Like the first test, the latest test is happening in the wake of the stock market’s failure to break through the overbought threshold on market breadth. Unlike the first test, the important … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Last week started strong with Goldman Sachs (GS). Analysts there looked beyond the coming Federal Reserve meeting and hiked their year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4500. The index quickly moved half the remaining distance and opened the door for more price chasing by analysts before 2023 hits the halfway … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Flying on the wings of an AI (artificial intelligence) gold rush, the NASDAQ may have delivered the swan song for its bear market. The latest rush of buying, sent the NASDAQ above its bear market line for the first time since last August. The path to this breakthrough was fraught with yet … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: What was quiet in the prior week is now loud and clear. Led by the NASDAQ, the stock market is in breakout mode. While market breadth is not quite endorsing the move, key breakouts are showing up in the indices and individual stocks. The inability of sellers to take advantage of bad … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The U.S.’s looming debt ceiling crisis is a manufactured emergency. The whole political wrangling could end in an instant with a very simple decision to keep budget negotiations in the budget process. Thus, the stock market’s relative calm about the political stalemate does not surprise me. Moreover, who are the motivated sellers … Read more