Above the 40 (August 31, 2018) – A Pause for FOMO

AT40 = 57.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.9 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I discussed the early signs of a potential run-up driven by the “fear of missing … Read more

Toll Brothers: Strong Financials, Buybacks…and Housing Jitters

Toll Brothers (TOL) is more than halfway through reversing a surprising post-earnings gap up a week and a half ago. The 13.8% post-earnings gain surprised me because the message from TOL was little different than its messages in the past two earnings reports that have coincided with an extended sell-off in the stock. Source: FreeStockCharts.com … Read more

Above the 40 (August 27, 2018) – Parabolic Moves Highlight FOMO Warm-Up Time

AT40 = 62.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 59.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.2 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Money managers may desperately want to wait until after Labor Day to put idle cash to work, but the stock market may … Read more

Above the 40 (August 24, 2018) – S&P 500 Historic All-Time High Shines Cautious Light On Opportunities

AT40 = 60.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 58.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.0 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Last week the stock market made history by delivering the longest bull market in history. Tonight on Nightly Business Report, markets are … Read more

A Gold Bottom But Will the U.S. Dollar Cooperate?

Gold, and by extension the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), has had a rough year. However, based on a historic flip in speculative positioning in gold futures, a bottom is likely in for GLD. According to the tweet and chart below, the net speculative positioning in gold recently went net negative for the first time in … Read more