A Widening Breakout for Home Builders

The iShares Dow Jones Home Construction ETF (ITB) gained 1.7% and broke out to a (marginal) 12-month high.

The breakout for home builders started with M.D.C. Holdings (MDC). MDC raised guidance and put strong emphasis on the positive expectations for its next earnings report. With analysts overwhelmingly bearish on the stock, the stock had plenty of upside surprise potential. The pent-up demand created a tremendous upward surge. Additional home builders are joining what … Read more

Forex Critical: Economic Fireworks Push Monetary Policy Further Into Retreat

The euro vs the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) reversed its 200DMA breakout, but it still has higher highs and higher lows since the April/May double-bottom.

In the background of the growing euphoria in the U.S. over imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is the growing weight of the steady descent of the economy in the eurozone. European Weakness The week started with the stock market’s first opportunity to respond to the declared truce in the trade war between the … Read more

A Trade War Truce Defies the Bad News Narrative for Rate Cuts – Above the 40 (June 28, 2019)

AT40 = 60.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Trade War The search for news bad enough to convince the Federal Reserve to cut rates continues. The weekend began with news … Read more

From Loitering to Breakout: Stocks Look for Bad News Worthy of Rate Cuts – Above the 40 (June 21, 2019)

AT40 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market is officially in bizarro world. The stock market is breathlessly rallying in anticipation of rate cuts that will come … Read more

Bitcoin Breakout: A 13-Month High Confirmed By Google Search Trends

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) broke out to a 13-month high this week, and Google Trends likely confirmed the move just like it confirmed the big April breakout. Google Trends provides an index showing the relative changes in the popularity of Google searches. On the same day that Bitcoin broke out, June 16th, Google searches on “Bitcoin” jumped … Read more