ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The Federal Reserve helped unlock the stalemate in pricing action that stalled the bearish divergence tugging the market toward oversold trading conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell once again told financial markets the Fed remains as hawkish as ever. Expectations contracted for rate cuts next year, interest rates soared, and stocks plunged. While … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week was a time to avoid staring too hard at the day-to-day pricing action. The major indices were pretty much locked into a stalemate. Two breakouts were followed by two breakdowns. From a wider perspective, a stalemate has effectively been in place since mid-August. Despite my expectations, last month’s Jackson hole … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market got a case of the uglies last week. The end of summer trading transitioned right into a swift drawdown for the stock market’s second of the three most dangerous months of the year. The fresh breakdowns in the major indices accompanied new lows for market breadth. Suddenly, what I … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Jackson Hole did not provide the market moving spark that I expected. Instead, soft economic news delivered the decisive interpretation of future monetary policy required to provide a fresh catalyst for stocks. The bullish spark caught me flat-footed as I was leaning into imminent oversold trading conditions. Fortunately, the sentiment shift was … Read more
Introduction I recorded a quick video to summarize my thoughts on today’s flip from bearish to bullish sentiment thanks to a bad news is good news kind of day. You can watch the video or read the transcript below curated, corrected, and organized by ChatGPT4 and then edited further by me. I am using this … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The annual Jackson Hole confab of central bankers starts this coming Thursday. Almost like technical poetry, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are back to the highs directly preceding Jackson Hole 2022. Depending on your perspective, this Jackson Hole redux either represents a bullish confirmation of the market’s resilience after 18 months … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The summer of stocks looks like it is winding down as trading dynamics transition into the stock market’s most dangerous months. The complete reversal of July’s gains on the major indices represents the most ominous sign of the transition. Technology stocks in particular have flipped from rocketships to anchors weighing on the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A week ago, buyers did their best to push against topping stock indices by restarting overbought conditions. That overbought period lasted just 3 days as a Fitch downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt freshly cooled the summer of loving stocks. The resulting selling confirmed topping conditions and greased the skids of the stock … Read more
Stock Market Commentary On Thursday, good economic news scared Wall Street yet again. Initial jobless claims came in well below “expectations” and set off a cascade of reactions. Interest rates shot up and the stock market dropped down. The stubborn strength of the labor market allows the Federal Reserve to stay hawkish and keep its … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market pushed into overbought conditions last week. After one follow-through day, small caps wilted and dragged down market breadth toward the overbought threshold. That key setback raises the stakes of the current earnings period. I will try to look through the likely “chop” in the trading action, to identify on-going … Read more