ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 6, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) One hundred and two (102) calendar days and counting and the S&P 500 (SPY) still has yet to reverse all the gains from last year’s Black Friday rally. {snip} These 102 … Read more
This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 1, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) While all eyes are trained on U.S. economic data this week, Australians are looking ahead to Monday, February 4th when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) makes its next statement on … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 11, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Thursday, January 10th, China reported export growth much larger than forecasters expected. {snip} This surge helped push the Australian dollar (FXA) far enough to finally break a long-standing downtrend against … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 2, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The rally from oversold conditions in the S&P 500 (SPY) from the November lows has now nearly recovered post-election losses. On the way up, we got to see whether Black Friday … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The day after Thanksgiving, affectionately known as Black Friday, is an odd day of trading. For whatever reason, the exchanges open for business for part of the day even as most people … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 17, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In early, July I quantified the very unique tendency of the S&P 500 (SPY) to deliver strongly positive returns in the three months (between July-end and October-end) before a Presidential election … Read more
In “How To Estimate Intraday Moves For The S&P 500 Using The Australian Dollar“, I quantified the relationship between the Australian dollar and the S&P 500 on an intraday basis. However, I did not provide any charts demonstrating the relationships. The chart below tracks the intraday relationships between SPY as a proxy for the S&P … Read more
The Australian dollar (FXA) continues to provide a useful leading indicator of the likely direction of the S&P 500 from day-to-day and week-to-week. After pointing out the signs of a bearish divergence on Thursday, August 16th, a notable bearish divergence opened between the S&P 500 and the Australian dollar the following day. The Australian dollar … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 2, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) A month ago I explained how the three months leading into a U.S. Presidential election featuring an incumbent tend to represent a bullish period (see “The Positive Trade When Incumbent Presidents … Read more