S&P 500 Analysis

The Positive Trade When Incumbent Presidents Run For Re-Election

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 2, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) S&P Capital IQ’s Sam Stovall appeared on Nightly Business Report on Friday, June 29, 2012 to provide some statistics on how the stock market tends to perform in the second half … Read more

The Japanese Yen Flashes Another Warning Even As the Australian Dollar and S&P 500 Resynch

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 19, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} I was looking for confirmation of the increasingly bullish outlook, but I did not get it. In “Bearish Implications of A Rare Convergence of Extremes in Yen vs S&P 500 … Read more

S&P500 Performance By Day of Week and The Changing Nature of Trading Tuesdays

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 7, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) After the S&P 500 (SPY) dropped as much as 0.4% on Monday, April 30, 2012, I decided to take a shot at trading what seemed to be the double whammy of … Read more

Bearish Implications of A Rare Convergence of Extremes in Yen vs S&P 500 Correlations

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 9, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In tweets and various posts, I have harped on the renewed strong relationship between yen strength and market weakness. In “Weakness in the Japanese Yen Is Over for Now, Part Two“, … Read more

The Australian Dollar Continues to Lose the Race Against the S&P 500 in 2012

Someone forgot to tell the Australian dollar that financial markets are in “risk on” mode. While the Australian dollar is still up for the year against the U.S. dollar, it continues to lag the S&P 500 (SPY) by a greater and greater distance. The Aussie is now up 2.6% versus the U.S. dollar whereas the … Read more

Trading the S&P 500 After An Overbought Period Ends – Using the Percentage of Stocks Trading Above Their 40DMAs (“T2108″)

Over the past year or so, I have worked to further refine the application of T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their 40-day moving averages (DMAs), to short-term trading. Last November, I updated my analysis of overbought periods, periods where T2108 equals 70% or more. That analysis provides a complete framework for understanding the … Read more