S&P 500 Analysis

Providing Some Historical Perspective On Another Sharp Stock Market Rally

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 26, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) As expected for this November, the S&P 500 (SPY) has continued a string of closes at fresh all-time highs. While the index is only about 2.8% above its all-time high preceding … Read more

Going Beyond the January Barometer: A More Nuanced View of Monthly Versus Yearly S&P 500 Performance

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 3, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) With February providing the lift the S&P 500 (SPY) needed to reverse January’s losses, it is time to take a look once again at the January barometer. The big fear last … Read more

The Low Risk Pairs Trade on the S&P 500 Passes Its First Test

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 16, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) On December 1, 2013, I wrote a piece called “A Potentially Low Risk Pairs Trade Opportunity Using The S&P 500” where I used PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility (SPLV) and PowerShares … Read more

The Problem With the January Barometer

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 1, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) CNBC’s “By the Numbers” recently reviewed the predictive power of the January Barometer with the following observations: “The January barometer has been right in 62 of the last 85 years, or … Read more

T2108 Update (January 27, 2014) – Market Stretches Further Into Quasi-Oversold Conditions

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (January 23, 2014) -Overbought for One Day…And All Aussie-Yen Breaks Loose

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen Enter 2014 Joined At the Hip – A Split Could Be Telling

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 27, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In “A Major Test Awaits The Australian Dollar In 2014 As 2013 Delivered New Correlations” I discussed this year’s strong (inverse) relationship between the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the Australian … Read more

A Potentially Low Risk Pairs Trade Opportunity on the S&P 500

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 1, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) I recently read a Seeking Alpha article titled “Today’s Stock Rally Is Full Of It” by contributor Eric Parnell. It first caught my eye because it included two relatively new ETFs … Read more