Eros International: Potential Trades On A Likely Binary Outcome

The recent plunge in Eros International (EROS) is finally getting some mainstream media attention in the U.S. Bloomberg ran a story on Friday, October 23. This attention finally prodded EROS management to issue a statement about the latest drama in its stock. Reuters quickly followed with a story on that press release. Forbes Asia did … Read more

The Commodities Crash Accelerates: Scenarios for Trading Oil

Several authors have pointed out the difficulties in fashioning trades to take advantage of the movement in oil prices (for a recent example, see “Is Gasoline The Smart Oil Play? UGA Vs. USO“). Analyses counting off the bullish and bearish arguments on oil can fill many tomes. For example, there is fear of a drop … Read more

The Only Remaining China-Based Trade I Like

The Shanghai Composite Index (SSEC) plunged 8.5% to start trading for the week. The ripple effects were wide and far-reaching even as arguments continue floating that the collapse in China’s stock market matters little outside of China and does not truly reflect on economic conditions in the country. Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook summed up … Read more

A Race Against Bearish Sentiment And Volatility for the United States Oil ETF

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 16, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On March 5, 2015, Barron’s Blogs published a short article on a large bet against volatility on United States Oil ETF (USO) called “Big Options Bet Sees Oil ETF Rangebound into … Read more

Internet Stock Valuation Update: Did Twitter Blow Off A Top?

Yesterday, March 24th, Twitter (TWTR) made an impressive breakout above the $50 battle line which defines the TWTR’s intraday high on its first day trading. Seeing the bullish move, it occurred to me I had not updated my comparison chart of internet stock valuations in a very long time. As luck would have it, I … Read more

Apple Trading Model – Post-Watch Technical Update

Apple (APPL) has officially announced the launch of its latest product, the iWatch. Source: Yahoo! Finance Source: Apple.com This makes a great juncture to provide a quick technical update on Apple and update the classification trees for the Apple Trading Model (ATM). For those of you who are new to the ATM, please read up … Read more

T2108 Update (February 3, 2015) – A Sudden Surge Toward Overbought Conditions

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Array BioPharma and Pandora Deliver Big for Options Buyers

I wish I could find a report that looks back on big stock moves and looks for any tell-tale options activity. It is always difficult to translate options action into predictions on stocks, but having a “hindsight” report could prove educational. In the meantime, we will have to settle for sporadic reports like this piece … Read more

T2108 Update (January 9, 2015) – A Perfect Pause for the S&P 500

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Why Home Builders Are Off to A Relatively Strong Start In 2015

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 9, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) It is still very early in the new year, but I cannot help notice the relative strength exhibited by iShares Trust – iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) and several major … Read more