Continued Momentum in Residential Construction Employment Doesn’t Stop Slide in Home Builder Shares

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 11, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) After employment in residential construction put on a surprisingly strong showing amidst a generally dismal January employment report, I decided to keep closer tabs on this important indicator of health in … Read more

Do Not Get Distracted By Insider Stock Sales at Toll Brothers

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 19, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Back in 2009, I was as bearish on housing as anyone. For example, I wrote two pieces pointing to massive insider stock sales at Toll Brothers (TOL) as evidence that company … Read more

Drop In the Housing Market Index Ends Upward Momentum of the Recovery, Delays Spring Sunshine

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 19, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The latest Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo demonstrates a very large and sudden drop in the confidence of home builders in … Read more

Meritage Homes Takes The Edge Off Bullish Expectations With A “Wait And See” Attitude

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 10, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) After writing about the bullish earnings report from D.R. Horton (DHI), I have looked for further confirmation from other major public homebuilders. Meritage Homes (MTH) remains on my list of favorites … Read more

The 2014 Homebuilder Breakout Begins Early With A Very Bullish D.R. Horton

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 29, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) In several posts, I have noted that the consolidation in 2013 for homebuilder stocks could become a springboard for a fresh rally in 2014. It seems the homebuilder breakout may have … Read more

T2108 Update (March 7, 2014) – Overbought with Caution

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (February 27, 2014) – Close Call #3 – Tantalizingly Close to Overbought

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (February 14, 2014) – No Love for the Bears Even As Overbought Conditions Loom

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Housing Recovery Will Proceed Even With the Changing Preferences for Living At Home

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on Aug 17, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The headlines seem pretty ominous: a record number of young adults aged 18-31 are living at home with their parents. The percentage of young adults under such living arrangements has shot … Read more

Prudential Real Estate Outlook Survey Reveals Optimism Amongst Young People

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on Aug 17, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In the past few weeks, we have read articles and studies describing the delayed household formation of younger Americans. I covered them in “The Housing Recovery Will Proceed Even With The … Read more