ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
While the volatility index (VIX) is only reluctantly responding to the latest turmoil in financial markets, other safety trades are moving in full steam. The “safety trade” I left out of my last post covering the stock market was the Swiss franc (FXF). At the time of writing the Swiss franc fell to a near … Read more
AT40 = 23.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (hit a low of 20.7%)AT200 = 36.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2 1/2 month low)VIX = 18.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary So much for the potential for follow-through on bullish divergence! Perhaps the failure is … Read more
On May 10th, the Turkish lira finally sprung back to life after USD/TRY hit a 7-month high. The move came right on the heels of another move by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to adjust its reserve requirements in a way to support the currency: “Considering the latest developments in financial … Read more
AT40 = 25.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 39.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 17.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40DMAs, broke through 30% and closed at 25.2%. My favorite technical indicator is … Read more
Tears In May Three weeks ago, I wrote about my skepticism about the strength of the British pound (FXB) in the wake of a resounding political defeat for the Conservatives. Brexit-related moves in the pound have proven fleeting and this time was no different. The pound peaked right after that post, but the persistent nature … Read more
For weeks and longer I read key pundits write about the need for rate cuts in Australia. I was quite skeptical: I even concluded in February that a rate cut was NOT imminent. In a move that surprised me, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe effectively promised an imminent rate cut in … Read more
AT40 = 43.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 47.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Over the weekend, I wrote about a “constructive stock market” as a reference to the stock market’s consistently positive responses to U.S. vs … Read more
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is putting the Google Trends indicator to the test. The price of Bitcoin is surging at the same time this key indicator of sentiment is also surging (on a relative basis). Per the Google Trends hypothesis I have demonstrated over time, this surge in excitement is signaling an imminent reversal in the parabolic … Read more
The Price Action A little over a month ago I made the case for a sustained bottom in Bitcoin (BTC/USD) based on the price action combined with Google Trends. I stated the following hypothesis: “a spike in search interest confirms a strong change in price behavior.” The on-going uptrend since that point proves out the hypothesis in … Read more
The British pound (FXB) is not the only currency trading in well-defined chaos. The Turkish lira stumbled into the week in the wake of the political uncertainty and forex chaos caused by the cancellation of the results of Istanbul’s recent municipal elections. USD/TRY soared at one point about 3%. The renewed political uncertainty reportedly comes … Read more