ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The verdict is almost in: the Turkish lira is overcoming its headwinds. After the results of Turkey’s constitutional referendum in mid-April, the Turkish lira bounced around in indecision. Against the U.S. dollar, the indecision ended in conjunction with the April 28th release on monetary policy from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in March, 2017 for February, 2017. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was at the bottom of what turned out to be a very shallow pullback from a near 10-year high. The subsequent recovery has been grinding and slow, but ITB now trades above … Read more
Australia just celebrated setting a (modern era) world record for the longest string of quarters without a recession. Yet Australia’s economic backdrop appears to be wavering. This week’s labor force survey could provide a critical point of relief or pile on yet more concern. Iron Ore’s Latest Plunge I begin with iron ore – Australia’s … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 5, 2017. Click here to read the entire piece.) The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) recently released its monthly market report for February. February was of course the month of an accelerated price decline for cocoa. Cocoa hit, and retested, a … Read more
In my last posts on the euro (FXE), the Canadian dollar (FXC), and the British pound (FXB), I noted significant trading moves by speculators in foreign exchange as reported by the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders (CoT). The latest CFTC CoT report shows more of the same for these currencies but the backdrops may be shifting … Read more
The Bank of England (BoE) has not raised interest rates since the Great Financial Crisis. During this time, there have been several inflation “scares” as inflation levitated well above the Bank’s 2% target. Through it all, the BoE stood resolute in choosing to see through the elevated inflation in order to avoid premature rate hikes … Read more
AT40 = 42.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 59.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.7 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The February U.S. jobs report catalyzed the next swing in the stock market’s bear-bull knife fight. I noted in my … Read more
The U.S. dollar index (DXY0) has started 2017 on a notable losing streak. The index’s clean close today below 100 is the latest confirmation of that weakness. The U.S. dollar index continued its dribbling down the lower part of Bollinger Bands (BBs) that define the current downtrend. Source: StockCharts.com This extension of weakness has complicated … Read more
“Uncertainty about the global outlook is undiminished, particularly with respect to policies in the United States.” – Bank of Canada press release, “Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent”, January 18, 2017 I start with this quote from the Bank of Canada because it stands in stark contrast to global financial … Read more
President-elect Donald Trump made a strong promise to bring back jobs to the U.S. from overseas. Manufacturing employment was a particular showcase in this campaign pledge. There are a lot of reasons to believe that a to return jobs to the U.S. will be extremely hard to accomplish. I am particularly struck by the data … Read more