ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The tariff rumors proved true after all. The green shoots of Monday that grew alongside the rumor of a pause presaged Wednesday’s massive relief from a real blink on tariffs. Those historic gains were large enough to generate a strong week broadly across the stock market. Still, as more blinking and backing … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A good friend of mine introduced me to the phrase – now we’re cooking with gas! In today’s context, this phrase refers to some startling developments in the rolling crash in the stock market. The technical damage was thorough, unrelenting, and nearly merciless. Chaos in economic policy chaos has fully transferred into … Read more
Stock Market Commentary There is no support in a bear market. The market is extremely volatile, and conditions are changing daily. The market is showing clear signs of weakness, with all major trends pointing downward. The mixed messages from yesterday (Thursday) are converging more clearly on the messages of a bear market. The long-term, mid-term, … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Two weeks ago I wrote how a “A DeepSeek Dive and A Tariff Toll” created the next shift in the market’s technical outlook. I stepped back from a bullish position on the market as a result. Now, a familiar theme has unfolded with the stock market looking ready to leave its latest … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Financial markets are supposed to act like discounting mechanisms which use the wisdom of the crowd to anticipate important events. The stock market stalled and then broke down ahead of the election. Excluding a last minute rush to buy on election day, I assumed the stock market might have a muted reaction … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Another week, another tease for bears. A fade from resistance joined market breadth in flagging bearish signals for the stock market. Yet, bears are hard-pressed to find a good risk/reward entry, especially considering the on-going uptrends for 2024. The latest confounder for bears has been the market’s general ability to ignore rising … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Bearish engulfing patterns flag potential tops at the end of uptrends. They represent the potential exhaustion of buying power as price first opens above the previous day’s high and then closes below the previous day’s close. Thus, the latest round of bearish engulfing patterns in major indices and major stocks should be … Read more
Stock Market Commentary In announcing the official end of monetary tightening, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell mentioned some form of the word “recalibration” nine times from his introductory statement to the Q&A portion of the press conference. Specifically, “….it’s a process of recalibrating our policy stance away from where we had it a year ago, … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 is down 4.1% month-to-date. This loss makes this month a below average September for a maximum drawdown and fulfills September’s reputation as one of the index’s three most dangerous months of the year. As I noted last week, August’s extreme drawdown significantly increased the risk of September being worse … Read more
Stock Market Commentary This year’s Jackson Hole confab hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve delivered for financial markets. In his prepared speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell issued an historic and classic sound bite for all of the history of monetary policy (emphasis mine): “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of … Read more