ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
{This analysis was updated on January 1, 2025 with the latest data, more clarity, and some corrections. Please see “How Home Builder Stocks Trade In A Seasonal Pattern (2025 Update)“} Introduction The U.S. housing market follows a seasonal pattern. The spring selling season represents the year’s peak of home sales. During this time, households try … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The Fed said “no” in 2022. The Fed said no to inflation, no to easy money, no to the housing market, and pointedly said no to a stock market pleading for relief from an accelerated cycle for normalizing monetary policy. Instead of the typical routine rushing to the rescue of a plunging … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary A continued respite from rising rates gave some breathing room for new home sales to stabilize in November while existing home sales continued to plunge with a dearth of inventory helping to suck air out of the room. Housing starts continued to plunge in parallel with home builder sentiment. However, … Read more
I will remember 2022 as the year of rolling crypto crises. One disaster after another undermined confidence in the ecosystem and forced changes in the bullish narratives for crypto. Through it all, the Google Trends Momentum Check (GTMC) stepped up to the test as a technical signal for short-term bottoms in Bitcoin. These crises did … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Revisions to the report on GDP (gross domestic product) typically do not generate reactions in the financial markets, especially the third revision. So I completely look past the third revision to Q3 GDP when I concluded the path of least resistance offered a reprieve. The revision revealed economic conditions were even better … Read more