ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Redfin Corporation (RDFN) joined a slowly growing list of companies announcing layoffs. In a heartfelt blog post, CEO Glenn Kelman explained “I’m sorry we can’t keep our commitment to you. With May demand 17% below expectations, we don’t have enough work for our agents and support staff, and fewer sales leaves us with less money … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Over two years ago, a lethal virus forced the economy to shut down. The Federal Reserve was one of many to rush to the rescue with historic sums of liquidity. Today, the economy stubbornly runs hot, and the Fed is rushing to “shut down” financial markets to cool down economic activity “just … Read more
At the time of typing, a steep sell-off continues in Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and Ethereum (ETH/USD). Typically, I would jump in and accumulate some more of either or both cryptocurrencies. However, after I took a step back to review the charts, I realized Bitcoin and Ethereum are in precarious positions with support melting away. Both cryptocurrencies … Read more
A month ago I laid out the case and conditions for bottoming across the collection of ARK funds. The key pivot rested with the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It still is the first and only of the pre-pandemic ARK funds to break its pandemic era closing low. Over the past month, ARKF struggled mightily … Read more
Stock Market Commentary First, a strong jobs report unnerved the stock market. Next, strong inflation unraveled the stock market as bear market trading beat stocks back to oversold’s edge. Perhaps ironically, the White House sounded an early alarm bell about the inflation report and gave market participants a head start in selling. Sellers quickly flipped … Read more
It is easy to forget that the months going into the COVID-19 pandemic were filled with fears of a recession. In response to mounting economic and political pressures, the Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, reversed course on the Fed’s 3-year effort to slowly normalize monetary policy with what he called a “mid-cycle” rate adjustment. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Good employment news came in the form of the May jobs report. The unemployment rate stayed flat at 3.6% while the U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs. Both the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate are essentially back to the pre-pandemic levels of February, 2020. The labor force participation rate remains 1.1% … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary Housing starts have remained above pre-pandemic highs while new home sales have spent much of the last year below pre-pandemic highs. In April, new home sales finally dropped back to the early pandemic trough. The South is even at pandemic era lows. The resulting mismatch between starts and sales has … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: With the prospects of a bottom for this bear market, I am getting a little more interested in individual stock narratives. The bear market rubble is extensive. The gems are dispersed across a wide area. These stock charts provide one framework for sifting through the trash and the opportunity. {note: in this … Read more
Almost seven years ago, I developed the “200DMA Signal” to provide a relative measure of major bottoms for the S&P 500 (SPY). The 200-day moving average (DMA) is a long-term measure of a price trend, so it provides a robust assessment of prevailing trends. The 200DMA Signal triggers when the S&P 500’s 200DMA suffers its … Read more