Above the 40 (January 16, 2018) – Overbought Conditions Abruptly End On A Reversal Day

AT40 = 64.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – ended a 1-day overbought period AT200 = 62.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.7 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary It figures that just one day after the stock market finally crossed into overbought territory, it … Read more

Above the 40 (January 12, 2018) – The S&P 500 Is Overbought At Last

AT40 = 70.01% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – Day #1 of an overbought period AT200 = 63.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.2 Short-term Trading Call: bullish (upgraded from cautiously bullish) Commentary The stock market was last overbought three months ago. At the … Read more

Above the 40 (January 11, 2017) – A Market Soaring Back to the Edge of Overbought

AT40 = 69.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 63.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.9 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary Last week, I complained about the stock market’s “rubber band” getting stretched. I claimed that AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks … Read more

Above the 40 (January 4, 2018) – The S&P 500 Once Again Outstretches the Field

AT40 = 65.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 63.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.2 (was as low as 8.9) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) burst higher yet again and spent most of the day at or … Read more

Above the 40 (January 2, 2018) – Stock Market Version 2018 Launches With Fireworks

AT40 = 64.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 62.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.8 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The New Year started with fireworks with the S&P 500 (SPY) gapping up to a 0.8% gain and new all-time high. … Read more

Above the 40 (December 15, 2017) – The Pause That Refreshed the Stock Market

AT40 = 59.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 59.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.4 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The market fatigue I pointed out last week lasted just one more day. In the spirit of this relentless bull market, … Read more

Above the 40 (December 13, 2017) – A Time to Rest With New Signs Of Stock Market Fatigue

AT40 = 57.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 58.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.2 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The stock market is looking a little tired. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at another all-time high on Tuesday and at … Read more

Above the 40 (December 1, 2017) – Another Sharp Panic Paves the Way for Fresh Buying

AT40 = 60.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 59.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.4 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary I call it a mini panic dip. Political news roiled the stock market for a brief moment, a grand 30 minutes … Read more

Above the 40 (November 29, 2017) – Bullish Divergence Powers Through A Wicked Rotation

AT40 = 59.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 59.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.7 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary “Time is ticking away for the bears and sellers as the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas is typically a very mild, … Read more

The Surprising Implications of Periods of Extremely Low Volatility – A Year of Records

Trying to chase volatility higher has been like chasing fancy footwork. The S&P 500 (SPY) last completed a drawdown of 5% or more on November 4, 2016. That ended a period of pre-election weakness that began in early to mid-August, 2016. The last drawdown of 5% or more before that occurred around Brexit when the … Read more