Above the 40 (February 16, 2018) – A Cloud Emerges Above the Oversold Bounce

AT40 = 32.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 49.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.5 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (downgrade from bullish – see below for more details) Commentary The trading contours in the aftermath of an oversold episode can move … Read more

Above the 40 (February 14, 2018) – A Bullish Tech Breakout Underlines the End of Oversold Conditions

AT40 = 27.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.3 (drop of 22.9%) Short-term Trading Call: bullish PROLOGUE Valentine’s Day, February 14th, was a great day in the stock market and a fantastic validation of my strategizing … Read more

Above the 40 (February 12, 2018) – Stocks Cling to Oversold Conditions

AT40 = 18.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #3) AT200 = 43.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 25.6 (range from 24.4 to 29.7) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary My favorite technical indicator made a valiant effort, but it could not quite break … Read more

Above the 40 (February 9, 2018) – A Stock Market Reset

AT40 = 14.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (day 2 oversold) AT200 = 31.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 2-year low) VIX = 29.1 (range from 27.7 to 41.1) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Friday’s classic battle between buyers and sellers delivered a (short-term?) market … Read more

Periods of Extremely Low Volatility Remain Bullish – Now With Fresh Footnotes

The volatility index, the VIX, closed below 11 on April 24, 2017. That launched 184 trading days of extremely low volatility (ELV). The VIX is now just 1 more trading day away from finally bringing this historic event to an end. By my definition, it takes 20 trading days of the VIX closing above 11 … Read more