Surging Oil Helps Nudge the Stock Market Into Overbought Conditions – Above the 40 (September 16, 2019)

The United States Oil Fund (USO) soared to a near 4-month high in the wake of a drone strike on Saudi oil facilities.

AT40 = 70.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #1 overbought)AT200 = 59.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (13-month high)VIX = 14.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Oil Soars When I wrote my last Above the 40 post, I knew about the drone strike on … Read more

A Manic Stock Market Leaves Behind An Extreme August Drawdown – Above the 40 (August 9, 2019)

Much ado about nothing? The 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) shows the gory details of a manic swoon to a near flat close for the week.

AT40 = 37.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) ended the week almost where it started. In between the bookends, the market gyrated wildly … Read more

Overbought Conditions Remain Elusive As Market Wavers Ahead of the Fed – Above the 40 (July 19, 2019)

AT40 = 58.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = ~52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.5Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A week ago, the S&P 500 (SPY) made a new all-time, and I was expecting a trip into overbought conditions. AT40 … Read more

Rate Cut Promises Rescued A Stock Market Near Oversold – Above the 40 (June 7, 2019)

AT40 = 38.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 18.9Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary From opening at the edge of oversold trading conditions to closing on near panic buying, last week was a wild week! … Read more

Forex Critical: Mexican Peso Races Past Border Threats

When U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to close the U.S. border with Mexico last November, the U.S. dollar was in the process of making a major top against the Mexican peso (USD/MXN). When Trump threatened a border closure again on March 29th, oddly enough, a minor relief rally in USD/MXN came to an end. At … Read more