FXCM Warns of Increased Currency Risks

“We believe there is a chance of disruption and highly illiquid conditions in the forex market during the coming weeks (and/or months). Please be aware that market gaps tend to occur over the weekend – that is, currencies trade at prices considerably distant from previous levels.” This is the warning FXCM, Inc. (FXCM) sent out … Read more

The Japanese Yen Flashes Red for 2016

Trading is off to a rough start in the new year. China kicked off the fireworks for 2016 with a trading halt. From Bloomberg: “The worst-ever start to a year for Chinese shares triggered a trading halt in more than $7 trillion of equities, futures and options, putting the nation’s new market circuit breakers to … Read more

The U.S. Dollar Should Remain On Center Stage Despite Market Tentativeness

The U.S. dollar index ended 2015 on a strong note, but it has yet to develop any post-Fed momentum. Of the ten trading days following the rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the index has closed below that day’s intraday high five days. Notably, the intraday LOW of that day is still holding strong … Read more

T2108 Update (December 9, 2015) – A Stock Market Hurtling Toward Oversold Trading Conditions

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

U.S. Dollar On the Edge of A Fresh Breakout Versus the Japanese Yen

As the hours count down to November’s jobs report for October, 2015, I have my eyes on potential currency plays. I noted earlier, I am now anticipating a continued breakout for the U.S. dollar index. After looking at individual charts, I am most intrigued by the U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen. USD/JPY is on … Read more

The Bank of Japan Maintains Stimulus Levels Even As Inflation Sits Well Below Target

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 7, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Bank of Japan put on a brave face as it announced its latest decision on monetary policy (October 7, 2015) with a big miss on its inflation target looming in … Read more

T2108 Update (May 27, 2015) – Volatility Survives (for now) the Same Old Chop

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (December 19, 2014) – A Convincing Start to Santa’s Rally

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

A Good Time for Adjusting the Bearish Trading Strategy on the Japanese Yen

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 23, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Ironically, this situation was essentially manufactured by these same authorities, but sure enough the first attempts to rein in the runaway train have appeared. Almost right on schedule, Japanese Finance … Read more

Trading the Breakdown of the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 6, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The pressure is building on the Australian dollar (FXA). If it were not for the fresh collapse in the Japanese yen (FXY), the proverbial risk trade would be looking very shaky. … Read more