ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: The confluence of market-moving news the last two days of the week resolved into a stock market looking incrementally healthier. A synchronized breakout above resistance at respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) flipped the script on the negative sentiment that dominated trading going into last week. While weakness in the U.S. dollar from … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Even sellers in a bear market exhaust themselves at some point. That point happened to coincide with the latest product announcements from Apple Inc (AAPL). So once again, AAPL finds itself sitting right at the focal point of an important market juncture. Across the major indices, the day’s relief rally generated a … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: And then there was just one. The S&P 500 (SPY) is once again the lone index of three that still trades just outside the clutches of the bear. The signs were flashing red last week as the bear market looked like it warmed right back up. The technicals of market breadth combined … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market threw a big fakeout, the biggest I have seen in a long time. Just yesterday, a synchronized failure at key resistance levels from the major indices combined with a drop from overbought conditions to convince me to get (cautiously) bearish on the stock market. The read on July CPI … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market took one more day to get resolution on the technical signals flashing from market breadth. A drop from overbought conditions triggered a bearish market signal. Failures at important resistance from the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and IWM each reinforced the bearish signal. However, the relatively mild trading action and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market failed its test of the summer of discontent. The bear market stayed true to its name and held firm at important resistance levels. This is a time to shift into neutral in deference to the unenthusiastic buying power and the overwhelming technicals. With earnings season underway and the continuing … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Over two years ago, a lethal virus forced the economy to shut down. The Federal Reserve was one of many to rush to the rescue with historic sums of liquidity. Today, the economy stubbornly runs hot, and the Fed is rushing to “shut down” financial markets to cool down economic activity “just … Read more
Stock Market Commentary First, a strong jobs report unnerved the stock market. Next, strong inflation unraveled the stock market as bear market trading beat stocks back to oversold’s edge. Perhaps ironically, the White House sounded an early alarm bell about the inflation report and gave market participants a head start in selling. Sellers quickly flipped … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The last “official” oversold period was 519 trading days ago. After 8 different intraday dips into and out of oversold territory, the stock market finally closed in oversold conditions. The signs of a bear market include the inability to stay out of oversold conditions. Today’s series of breakdowns combined with further deterioration … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The runway for (short-term) bearishness has greatly shortened. The classic safety trades sprung to life to add exclamation points to the broadening sell-off. After over 6 weeks of near relentless losses, the Japanese yen (FXY) caught a strong bid. Inflation fears returned to the background as traders eased into Treasury bonds (per … Read more