Declining Market Breadth Resolved Into An Oversold Trading Period – Above the 40 (July 19, 2021)

Stock Market Commentary Unlike the months long process of declining market breadth, the resolution into an oversold trading period came swift, fast, and in a hurry. I thought my wait for an oversold trading period would last more days and weeks. Instead, a further plunge in market breadth combined with other important price signals to … Read more

Stock Market Rebounded from the Brink of A Real Sell-Off – Above the 40 (May 14, 2021)

Stock Market Commentary Last week featured yet another episode of momentary panic proceeded by a virtual “all clear” signal. In the middle of the week, the S&P 500 (SPY) broke down just as the stock market hit extremes. Subsequently, buyers stepped into the breach. As a result, the very next day, the stock market rebounded … Read more

The S&P 500 Broke Down Just As the Stock Market Hit Extremes – Above the 40 (May 12, 2021)

AT40 (T2108) plunged from 59.7% to 38.1% in 3 days for its lowest close in 6 months.

Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) finally broke down and succumbed to the selling pressure building up in the stock market. A “surprise” surge in inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) delivered the headline catalyst for a day of broad-based selling. Given market breadth was already in the process of narrowing, … Read more

A Fresh Crack in the Stock Market’s Complacency

A Fresh Crack from the Currency Market At the time of writing, the Australian dollar versus the Japanese yen (AUD/JPY) is falling below its 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line in the chart below) for the first time since last September. This move is the latest yellow, perhaps red, flag on the stock market … Read more

Sharp Rebound in Stocks Flashed Signs of Refreshed Bullishness – Above the 40 (March 25, 2021)

AT40 (T2108) sharply rebounded off a 5-month intraday low.

Stock Market Commentary After today’s open, the rolling interruption to the reopen trade started to look like the beginning of a real pullback. Sellers got about 90 minutes to enjoy the pressure before buyers took control. The back and forth between selling pressure and buying relief has taken a toll on a swath of the … Read more