ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary I thought the advantage of new home sales over existing homes was coming to an end soon. The data suggest otherwise. New home sales surged to an 18-month high while existing home sales fell to a 12-year low. The resilience continues for new homes and most builders. The stock market … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary May’s housing market was remarkably strong and represented the peak velocity of the spring selling season. June followed up with more relative strength but a slight sequential cooling as mortgage rates continued a march back to the top of the recent range. Housing starts, new home sales, and existing home … Read more
I assumed the seasonal trade on home builders came to an end some time in May. However, the tailwinds lifting builders higher remain as strong as ever. This strength and outperformance has confused and confounded those assuming higher interest rates would mean disaster for the housing market and an eventual recession. A recent upgrade for … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary A continued respite from rising rates gave some breathing room for new home sales to stabilize in November while existing home sales continued to plunge with a dearth of inventory helping to suck air out of the room. Housing starts continued to plunge in parallel with home builder sentiment. However, … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I described how a housing recession was reflected in the worsening housing data, including the latest report on U.S. GDP. While new home sales made another surprise bounce in October, the rest of the housing data continued to worsen in the month. However, a … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I described the dynamics of a housing market trying to wait out this cycle of rising rates. Since then, ever higher mortgage rates continued their relentless and sharp uptrend. Accordingly, the pressures on the housing market simply increased further. The marks of a deepening … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary The story of housing remained relatively steady for most of the year: low inventory, rising prices, strong demand, low interest rates, and the desire for more space, especially in the suburbs. In my last Housing Market Review, I explored the market as a nexus of economic recovery and inflation. In … Read more
Stock Market Commentary August was a breeze, and the stock market strolled in September. A few pebbles rolled into the path this week. The indices delivered divergent behavior which brings up familiar themes of rotation. Most notably, the rotations pressured market breadth as small caps in particular displayed fresh signs of weakness. The Stock Market … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Homebuilder stocks joined most rate-sensitive plays by falling sharply from their lofty levels once the direction and momentum of rates became clear. {snip} I consider … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 28, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Congratulations to those of you who were able to ignore the bears on housing and stick with housing stocks this year. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) has finally recovered all … Read more