ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary The U.S. housing market ended 2025 with mixed signals. Builder stocks are stuck in trading ranges, builder confidence has stalled, and affordability remains strained. Pockets of strength in sales activity is likely coming from a softening price environment and higher inventory levels. The data points do not tell a single, … Read more
The bearish to bullish reversal ended for home builder stocks with a return to bear market territory. Today, October 9, 2025, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) dropped under the threshold that defines a bear market: 20% below the all-time high (see chart below). The 2.6% slide on the day is part of a … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market for July, 2025? The housing data looked as bad as ever, but the stock market has finally responded favorably to the stocks of home builders. This forward-looking display of “green shoots” forms the basis of a “bearish to bullish reversal.” The catalyst for this … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A bearish engulfing top pattern in the S&P 500 now seems like a distant memory. Yet, the melt-up in the stock market faces a new test. Just as the stock market enters its most dangerous months of the year in terms of drawdowns, a bearish divergence has emerged with market breadth. What … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in April, 2025? Macro-economic headlines and conditions dominated the environment with tariff pressures and chaos at the center. The economic uncertainty cascading from the burden of tariff policy permeated results from homebuilder and consumer sentiment, housing starts, and existing home sales. New home sales … Read more