ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The stock market delivered a gift on Friday as I scrambled to de-risk following the Bank of Japan’s drama on monetary policy. I braced for selling into bearish pressure and instead was pleasantly greeted by a broad push higher for stocks from the open. After the dust settled on the day, I … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The Federal Reserve’s latest pronouncement on monetary policy was supposed to provide the drama of the week. However, the stock market yawned and resumed the buying of the summer of love at the open of trading the next day. Enter the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to provide the real drama. The fireworks … Read more
Stock Market Commentary On Thursday, good economic news scared Wall Street yet again. Initial jobless claims came in well below “expectations” and set off a cascade of reactions. Interest rates shot up and the stock market dropped down. The stubborn strength of the labor market allows the Federal Reserve to stay hawkish and keep its … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market pushed into overbought conditions last week. After one follow-through day, small caps wilted and dragged down market breadth toward the overbought threshold. That key setback raises the stakes of the current earnings period. I will try to look through the likely “chop” in the trading action, to identify on-going … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The bulls win big. The summer of loving stocks continued with the bulls overcoming a major hurdle: the overbought threshold for market breadth. After two failed attempts in the last month, the third attempt became the charm. The charm received a strong endorsement from fresh breakouts by the S&P 500 and the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The summer of loving stocks is staring down its second major test just two weeks after its first major test. Like the first test, the latest test is happening in the wake of the stock market’s failure to break through the overbought threshold on market breadth. Unlike the first test, the important … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The summer of loving stocks survived its first major test. The numbers for the first half of the year put an exclamation on a rally that has defied most expectations. The S&P 500 (SPY) had its 12th best first half since at least 1933 (per Cater Braxton Worth) with a 15.9% gain … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The summer of loving stocks is facing its first real test. In the middle of the week, the rally finally failed at the threshold of overbought market breadth. The stock market closed the week with market breadth confirming the end of the primary rally and the start of an important test of … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The bulls were right at the frontier of overbought trading. The threshold defining overbought market breadth held firm and punched sentiment out of bullish territory. While this development is typically bearish, the summer of loving stocks still has uptrends supporting the potential for buying dips at moving averages. This is a time … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Last week started strong with Goldman Sachs (GS). Analysts there looked beyond the coming Federal Reserve meeting and hiked their year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4500. The index quickly moved half the remaining distance and opened the door for more price chasing by analysts before 2023 hits the halfway … Read more