ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The U.S. Federal Reserve failed to hike rates in its June policy meeting just as expected. More importantly, the Fed left alone its projection of the appropriate policy path for 2016 at 0.9%. The Fed trimmed its expectation for 2017 from 1.9% to 1.6% and slashed 2018 from 3.0% to 2.4%. The “long run” dropped … Read more
On June 6, 2016 (U.S. time), the Reserve Bank of Australia released its latest statement on monetary policy. The pronouncement was as pedestrian as ever, including leaving rates untouched. The most notable difference from the current and the previous statement appears to be the RBA’s reflections on inflation. In the current statement, the RBA made … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 14, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Google Trends continues to prove itself useful in assessing the potential for important turns in the direction of gold, specifically the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). On November 29, 2015, I wrote … Read more
Last week, the Australian dollar (FXA) was slammed by poor inflation data. Market expectations for a rate cut strengthened significantly as well. This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) took heed and cut its cash rate from 2.0% to 1.75%. In its statement on the monetary policy decision, the RBA explained that its decision … Read more
The Bank of Canada released its latest decision on monetary policy a week ago on April 13, 2016 and left its target rate at 1/2% again. According to the Bank of Canada (BoC), the government’s fiscal policy saved the day for the Canadian economy. Global growth is slowing. The strength in the Canadian dollar (FXC) … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 11, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Japanese yen (FXY) rang in the new year with loud alarm bells. At the time, I wrote about the implications for the surge of strength in “The Japanese Yen Flashes … Read more
The Bank of England (BoE) released its latest pronouncement on monetary policy on April 14, 2016. As has been the case for what feels like forever now, the BoE kept policy the same with Bank rate at 0.5%, and it maintained the stock of purchased assets at £375 billion. The BoE concluded that the outlook … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
What a difference a month makes. On February 19, the S&P 500 (SPY) was taking a brief rest from a sprint off oversold conditions. The market for Fed Fund Futures had priced away any rate hikes for all of 2016. Ever since then, expectations have risen ever higher. NOW, the market expects the next rate … Read more