ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in July, 2024? July started with a major downgrade from Citigroup for the housing sector. The downgrade at the time confirmed the implications of a bust for the spring selling season. My lamentations about the bust seemed confirmed by further deterioration in the housing … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in May, 2024? Homebuilders suddenly soured on the prospects for the housing market. In my previous Housing Market Review, I pointed out signs of topping and sales headwinds. The data in May delivered a picture of broadening weakness as a follow-through to the warnings … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in February, 2024? Breakouts and bottoms happened. In my previous Housing Market Review, I posited the possibility of a top in the seasonal trade on home builders. In the subsequent month, the stocks of home builders took on new life as investors forgot about … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary The window for new home sales stealing share from existing home sales may be grinding to an end. Another plunge in sentiment for home builders combined with mortgage rates trending fast and furiously upward toward 8% are exerting more and more friction on the entire housing market. The stocks of … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary A hawkish Federal Reserve has changed the game for the housing market. At first, I thought the normalization in monetary policy would generate a “settling in” for the housing market. However with inventories tight, a scarcity in available labor, rising material costs, and a dysfunctional supply chain, higher rates may … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary The story of housing remained relatively steady for most of the year: low inventory, rising prices, strong demand, low interest rates, and the desire for more space, especially in the suburbs. In my last Housing Market Review, I explored the market as a nexus of economic recovery and inflation. In … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary The home builder stock buying season started on a firm foundation. November delivered strong follow-through across a broad range of housing-related stocks even as the housing data settles into a period of normalization. Demand for new and existing homes is well off last year’s heated levels. Supply remains extremely tight … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In the last Housing Market Review, I described the growing calm in the housing market data that contrast with the sell-off in home builder stocks. That sell-off worked in sync with the general stock market. The rebound in October also worked in parallel with the general stock market. As a … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary Despite more evidence of slowing conditions in the housing market, home builder stocks remained relatively resilient in August. The underlying dynamics of demand remain in place even as housing prices remain lofty and continue to conjure up images of a housing bubble for market commentators and pundits. A supportive Federal … Read more
The Follow-Through Intro The biggest follow-through trades from “Key Stock Sectors Missed A Breakout In Market Breadth – Above the 40” (June 11, 2021) erupted in the housing-related plays. Big cap tech looks more ready than ever to reestablish its leadership position over the market. The stock market had an initial negative reaction to the … Read more