ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro/Summary In several posts on the housing market, I made the case for a top in the stocks of home builders and pointed out the parallel weaknesses in the housing data. Last week, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) appeared to confirm what looks like a triple top in the index. Not … Read more
AT40 = 42.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 46.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A day after the major indices flipped from bullish support to bearish resistance, buyers rallied these indices through resistance. It was a tenuous … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary In the March Housing Market Review, I described how the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) was breaking out despite an unimpressive collection of housing data (in the aggregate and trendwise). Last month, I updated my analysis of the seasonal trading strategy for home builders and pointed out the historical tendency for … Read more
(Updated on January 3, 2023 in “How Home Builder Stocks Trade In A Seasonal Pattern“) The Spring selling season is a critical period for the housing market and usually delivers peak activity for the year. This seasonal pattern forms a notable pivot for the stocks of home builders. These stocks typically rally on the wings … Read more
The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) has essentially reversed its entire breakdown that began in October. ITB is now up 24.4% for the year and up 30.9% from the December low. These gains outpace the S&P 500’s (SPY) rebound of 15.2% for the year and 22.8% since the December low. This out-performance means that … Read more