ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The stock market’s dip into oversold territory lasted the typical one day. The immediate wake was ugly. The follow-through revealed a new divergence. The resulting oversold bounce carved out the S&P 500 for special status as the winner of the divergence. The index hit an all-time high while the majority of the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The November jobs report suggested that the employment rate fell to levels last seen before the pandemic. However, the 210,000 additional jobs is well below the 1,000,000 additional jobs estimated by the U.S. household survey. This great divergence is a good metaphor for the uncertainty causing sharp and wide gyrations in the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Pressures continue to build in financial markets. Trading today opened like a typical relief bounce but ended with a thud. A breakdown in the S&P 500 flagged the seriousness of the selling. Fresh highs in a surging volatility index confirmed the magnitude of the pressures from a new fear and loathing for … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell, aka “J-Pow”, finally decided the time has come to drop the descriptor “transitory” from America’s current experience with inflation (see the 37:00 mark in the video below). J-Pow even acknowledged that “it is therefore appropriate…to consider wrapping up the taper of asset purchases…perhaps a few months sooner” … Read more
Stock Market Commentary News of a new 30-spike protein COVID-19 variant sent financial markets into a tumble. The rapid news flow combined with a shortened, holiday trading day to deliver broad-based and intense selling pressure. As the market absorbs this latest blow, it should become clearer that COVID-19 is a new normal. That is, the … Read more
A major gauntlet dropped on the stock market. Apple (AAPL) soared as high as 3.2% but closed at just a 0.3% gain. AAPL broke out to a new all-time high last week in the middle of a swift 8-day run-up. In that time, AAPL bounced off support at its 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Technology stocks are now the main stocks climbing the wall of inflation. A notable and stark rotation unfolded this last trading week. A new plunge in market breadth seemingly accompanied selling of almost everything without the big cap tech label. With a topping in market breadth confirmed, I triggered a fall clean-up … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The first trading week of November was action-packed. At the start of the week I looked ahead to monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and the October jobs report as key catalysts. While those events were indeed important, the stock market was treated to an overlay of at least two other important … Read more
In recent days, market pundits have excitedly talked about the prospects of the Federal Reserve getting so dovish that it would be willing to make a bold statement with a rate cut of 50 basis points for the July 31st announcement on monetary policy. Such a move would be quite dramatic given the Fed has … Read more