ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 14, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) U.S. homebuilders continue to beat a drum of optimism. KB Home (KBH) is no exception. In its July earnings report, KBH established a strategy of “Going on Offense”. KBH provided more … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 26, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The last earnings reports from homebuilders like Toll Brothers (TOL) and KB Home (KBH) have delivered very positive outlooks on the current housing market: see “A Swell Of Pent Up Demand … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 24, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} TOL reported earnings the morning of August 22nd. The tone of the conference call was bullish and the market responded by pushing TOL to fresh 5 1/2 year highs. TOL’s … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 19, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I still believe that a bottom is coming for housing in 2013. Some areas of the country, like the Silicon Valley area of Northern California, have already left a bottom far … Read more
Almost two weeks ago, I wrote a piece titled “Lender Processing Services Poised to Profit as Housing Market Worsens” in which I provided my thoughts and analysis about the latest earnings conference call for LPS. That piece included a detailed review of the entire earnings conference call. I concluded that the information management provided seemed … Read more
It seems the Federal Reserve may maintain some excuse to keep printing money. Hundreds of billions printed in the name of economic recovery and inflation can be seen almost everywhere except the housing market, one of two of the Fed’s main targets – the other being employment. (See “Inflation Watch” for running highlights of stories … Read more
Many homebuilder stocks, like Toll Brothers (TOL), went parabolic in April. The homebuilder index, XHB, hit 18-month highs at the time. Since flaming out, TOL is down 26%, and the homebuilder’s ETF, XHB, has sunk 23% in two months. This action further confirms the principle that parabolic moves more than likely signal the coming end … Read more
Today has been a wild day in the financial markets, and I almost hesitate to jot down my thoughts before the close of trading. However, I will be shutting things down to get the weekend started as soon as possible, so I am writing now while thoughts remain fresh. There is no one theme I … Read more
The Washington Post issued an alarming article today titled “Housing Agency’s Cash Reserves Will Drop Below Requirement.” In what seems like yet another case of “here we go again,” Federal Housing Authority (FHA) Commissioner David H. Stevens tells us not to worry about his agency’s dwindling reserves even as mortgage delinquencies rise. The Post explains … Read more