ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
Housing Market Intro and Summary Could the housing downturn already be coming to a swift end? The stocks of home builders are delivering this message. They have enjoyed a very healthy rally and recovery from the depths of the March stock market crash. The challenges ahead are large: worsening economic conditions, unemployment at historically high … Read more
A Startling V-Shaped Recovery Meritage Homes (MTH) has become a poster child for the near V-shaped recovery for housing-related stocks. MTH achieved a startling feat on the heels of a 3.5% gain: at its highs of the day, Meritage Homes reached its post-earnings stock price on January 30th which in turn was close to a … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary Something surprising is happening in the middle of the current downturn in the housing market: buyers keep coming and home builders are staying resilient and resolute. A series of earnings reports from publicly traded home builders do not reflect the historic plunge in builder sentiment from April (see below). The … Read more
“Despite the challenging environment we encountered at the end of the first quarter, our business was stronger in April than we had originally expected and we are seeing positive momentum in recent sales trends that leads us to believe the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic may be less severe than we had originally expected. We … Read more
Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 69.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) 3+ month highAT200 = 14.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 33.6Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stakes are ever higher. Right alongside confirmations of major breakouts from the major stock indices, AT40 … Read more
In a press release titled “‘No Lump Sum Required at the End of Forbearance’ says FHFA’s Calabria” the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) sought to reassure home owners that they will not risk defaulting on their homes coming out of a mortgage forbearance program. The forbearance program gives home owners relief from paying their mortgage … Read more
“…if not for the pandemic, the strong momentum going into the Spring may have actually sent confidence higher still. Instead, confidence will undoubtedly plunge in the next report. The consumer sentiment index plunged to a 4-year low as a leading indicator of where builder confidence will go.” Housing Downturn: Put Spring’s Momentum On the Shelf … Read more
It seems like an eternity has passed since LGI Homes (LGIH) reported yet one more bullish home closings report. For February, LGIH reported a year-over-year increase in home closings of 54.2% and a year-over-year increase of 57.1% in January and February combined. With another home closings report due soon, it looks like the stock market … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary The housing market has become a lot more dynamic than usual, so over the past few months I have written more pieces beyond the monthly housing market review. The current economic crisis coming from the coronavirus pandemic has increased my frequency of coverage. The most telling moments came when I wrote to … Read more
AT40 = 2.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (20th oversold day)AT200 = 3.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 61.7Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The week did not start as I feared with a 5th circuit breaker shut-down … Read more