ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The Federal Reserve helped unlock the stalemate in pricing action that stalled the bearish divergence tugging the market toward oversold trading conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell once again told financial markets the Fed remains as hawkish as ever. Expectations contracted for rate cuts next year, interest rates soared, and stocks plunged. While … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Jackson Hole did not provide the market moving spark that I expected. Instead, soft economic news delivered the decisive interpretation of future monetary policy required to provide a fresh catalyst for stocks. The bullish spark caught me flat-footed as I was leaning into imminent oversold trading conditions. Fortunately, the sentiment shift was … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market delivered a gift on Friday as I scrambled to de-risk following the Bank of Japan’s drama on monetary policy. I braced for selling into bearish pressure and instead was pleasantly greeted by a broad push higher for stocks from the open. After the dust settled on the day, I … Read more
NVIDIA Races Ahead Money manager Cathie Wood of ARK Invest is known for being unconventional by making concentrated bets on highly speculative companies, what Wood calls betting on innovation that solves problems. So of course Wood has AI-related bets in the various ARK funds. The ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) in particular holds … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Last week I described how to reconcile a stock market that was both complacent and oversold. The stock market proceeded from there to double down on complacency while rebounding from “close enough to oversold” levels for market breadth. Traders are showing no worries as the volatility index (VIX) plunged to levels last … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The trade on Generative AI took a surprising turn last week as investors and traders rushed to related names as if they offered safety from the banking Panic of 2023. Some stocks shot straight up for the week. The renewed interest surprised me because I just happened to write about this trade … Read more
The race is on in generative AI (artificial intelligence). Chat GPT introduced this natural language algorithm to a mass audience in November, 2022, and we love it so far. With a market proof at hand, companies are rolling out commercialization efforts. These conversational knowledge engines will find their way into more and more products and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Mid-week, fresh drama in crypto looked like the next pivot point for the stock market. Instead, the bout of selling turned into a forgettable speedbump. Buyers returned with force in Bitcoin (BTC/USD), and the major stock indices recovered from major technical breakdowns and tests. In recent weeks, the stock market has bounced … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The Q3 2022 U.S. GDP report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis undermined this year’s strident claims that the economy overall is already in recession. Q3 GDP grew 2.6% largely thanks to a 2.8% growth in personal expenditures for services (one more validation of the relatively strong jobs market) and thanks to … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: After much resistance to Fed hawkishness, the U.S. stock market gave way to fresh bearishness. The major indices dropped into new depths of the bear den. The stocks below are snapshots of the latest deterioration in the price action and decline in the technical health underlying the stock market. The ARK funds … Read more