A New Year’s Re-Evaluation of the Drivers for Bullishness On the Canadian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on Jan 2, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On December 23rd, Statistics Canada reported another strong showing for Canada’s GDP. This time it was manufacturing that produced the unexpectedly strong result. Real GDP increased 0.3% in October. {snip} Given … Read more

Bank of Canada Gets More Bearish Ahead of More News of Employment Stagnation

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 8, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) On June 4th, the Bank of Canada hit the “repeat button” by maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1%. The rest of the statement was not a repeat: it … Read more

Not Worrying About China’s Impact on the U.S. Housing Market

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 14, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) There are plenty of reasons to worry about the U.S. housing market. I am not adding China’s recent market turmoil to the list. In a piece called “Will China flee or … Read more

The Canadian Dollar Overshadowed by A Strong U.S. Jobs Report

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 8, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Canada experienced two extremely strong monthly jobs reports going into the report for November, 2014. Both positive reports were generally overlooked by currency markets. This time around, Canada’s job report did … Read more

The Bank of Canada Confirms A Potentially Important Turning Point

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 4, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Bank of Canada once again left its overnight target interest rate at 1% in its latest monetary policy decision. An important change this time around came in the form of … Read more

A Strong Canadian GDP Report Ignored: A Contrarian Opportunity in the Making

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 20, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Once again, traders overlooked another strong economic report from Canada. This time the strong report came in the form of GDP growth. The distracting event was a tremendous plunge in oil … Read more

A Second Extremely Strong Month for Canadian Jobs Chases Away My Bearish Bias

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 9, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Suddenly, prospects for the Canadian dollar (FXC) are presumably improving with unemployment making a dramatic turnaround over the last two months. September’s good news was drowned out by October’s sharp sell-off … Read more

No Positive Catalyst for the Canadian Dollar from the Bank of Canada

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 27, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Wednesday’s terrorist attack in Canada disrupted life in Ottawa on the same day the country’s central bank was scheduled to hold a press conference to discuss its latest monetary policy decision. … Read more

Lost in the Market Angst: A Dramatic Improvement in Canadian Employment

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 12, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Suddenly, I am feeling a lot less bearish about the Canadian dollar (FXC). {snip} This means that half the job creation over the past year happened all in one month. What … Read more

Canadian Export Growth Surged Just As the Canadian Dollar Staged A Comeback

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 1, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Part of the thesis for my on-going bearishness on the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar (FXC) has included the apparent dampening of exports by a (previously) stubbornly strong Canadian dollar. … Read more