ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
AT40 = 35.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 31.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 20.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary via GIPHY The bears took back complete control of the market. Friday, they sent up the warning signal with the screeching of … Read more
I am riding the long U.S. dollar index (DXY) trade based on two simple drivers: 1) a U.S. Federal Reserve pacing for four rate hikes in 2018, and 2) an expanding trade war, especially against China, which on balance will create more demand for U.S. dollars especially relative to those currencies who stand to lose … Read more
AT40 = 31.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.6 (17.7% gain) Short-term Trading Call: bullish (caveats below!) Commentary During the thick of the sell-off earlier this month, I stated with tongue-in-cheek that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome … Read more
AT40 = 27.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.3 (drop of 22.9%) Short-term Trading Call: bullish PROLOGUE Valentine’s Day, February 14th, was a great day in the stock market and a fantastic validation of my strategizing … Read more
Speculators have not been this bullish on the euro since at least 2008. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders These charts reveal a distinct sentiment shift on the euro this year. Since 2008, speculators spent the majority of the time as firm euro bears. The new high in net long positioning going into 2018 signals … Read more
AT40 = 68.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (high of 69.4%) AT200 = 57.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.2 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I noted how the stock market bent but stubbornly refused to … Read more
AT40 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.1 (volatility index) (11.7% gain) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary Suddenly, tech stocks are in trouble all over again. On June 9, 2017, tech stocks suddenly swooned, … Read more
The latest CFTC data on the Commitments of Traders (CoT) shows some important moves in the positioning of speculators. Australian dollar (FXA) While the price of iron ore plunged, bullishness on the Australian dollar (FXA) remained surprisingly strong. I am almost equally surprised to see this bullishness now in full scale retreat as iron ore … Read more
I may have flipped outright bearish on the U.S. dollar index (DXY0) just in time. My change in sentiment started with my increasing bullishness on the euro (FXE). With the euro constituting about 51% of the U.S. dollar index, I realized that it would be hard to remain bullish on the dollar overall while adopting … Read more
Ahead of the second and final round of the French Presidential election, I noted a burst of euro-optimism. That optimism continued in the form of speculators turning net bullish on the euro for the first time in three years. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders While this flip from bearish to bullish for the first … Read more