Potentially Ominous Breakdown for Caterpillar (CAT)

The last time Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) failed a retest of all-time highs was in the middle of 2008. The stock broke down in June and it was mostly downhill from there for another year. On Tuesday, March 6th, Caterpillar confirmed another failed retest of an all-time high by breaking down below its 50DMA. Source of … Read more

Chart Review: Stock Recoveries, Critical Resistance, and Emerging Breakouts

The current extended overbought period has produced many amazing chart patterns. In this chart review, I am highlighting some charts I find particularly interesting and compelling. There are impressive recoveries, stocks dancing with critical resistance, and emerging breakouts. Some charts are quite telling in that they completely contradict the presumed economic disaster from an imminent … Read more

From Destocking to Restocking, Joy Global Weakens Case for a Commodities Crash

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 20, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week, Joy Global (JOY) reported its fourth quarter and 2011 operating results and provided some valuable details on the outlook for commodities in 2012. JOY blames inventory destocking for the … Read more

A Review of the Commodities Crash Playbook As Another Phase of Selling Ends

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) Commodities across the board have suffered mightily during the stock market’s recent correction. In the first phase of the sell-off (from late July to early August), a few commodity-related stocks triggered buys by erasing all … Read more

T2108 Update – October 7, 2011 (Buyers Stymied At Resistance Yet Again)

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag.) T2108 Status: 22% (2nd day of oversold conditions) VIX Status: 36 General (Short-term) Trading Call: Hold. Commentary T2108 dropped … Read more

T2108 Update – October 3, 2011 (Bring on the Bear)

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag.) T2108 Status: 15% (1st day of oversold conditions) VIX Status: 45 General (Short-term) Trading Call: Oversold trading rules have … Read more

T2108 Update – September 30, 2011 (Holding Trading Range…Just Barely)

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag.) T2108 Status: 22% VIX Status: 43 General (Short-term) Trading Call: Hold Commentary I suppose it is fitting that the … Read more

T2108 Update – September 28, 2011

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag.) T2108 Status: 23% (ends last oversold period at 2 days) VIX Status: 41 General (Short-term) Trading Call: Hold Commentary … Read more

T2108 Update – September 26, 2010 (A “Typical” Oversold Period Ends)

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag.) T2108 Status: 24% (ends last oversold period at 2 days) VIX Status: 39 General (Short-term) Trading Call: Conservative traders … Read more

T2108 Update – September 22, 2011 (Oversold and Over the Edge – CAT Says It All)

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag.) T2108 Status: 18.5% VIX Status: 41 General (Short-term) Trading Call: Aggressive traders start buying. Conservative traders buy once VIX … Read more