ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Analysis Summary Market liquidity fears intensified across equities and crypto as market breadth continued to deteriorate. The major stock market indices confirmed bearish technical breakdowns. Major AI and tech stocks confirmed weakening momentum. The week ended with a relief rally after rate-cut expectations surged with Fed Governor Williams teasing a possible December easing. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary At the end of September, I asked skeptically whether an oversold bounce could prevent an October swoon. As I suspected at the time, the answer turned out to be no. The market-moving headlines for October have included weighty, tragic, and alarming news making for a demotivating trading environment. An oversold bounce earlier … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Get used to the sentiment shifts. One day the stock market went oversold and over hard. The next day, an oversold bounce shows signs of life for stocks. In particular a classic bottoming signal came in the form of the “hammer” candlestick. Together, the bounce from oversold territory and the bottoming hammer … Read more
Over a month ago, I uncovered a sunny thesis about a bottom for the ARK funds. The timing of that post happened to be the exact top of the cycle for the ARK funds. Moreover, the S&P 500 (SPY) was trading just under its 200-day moving average (DMA) (the blue in the chart below). Once … Read more
The conditions for bottoming in the ARK funds started to diverge a bit in late June. While the bottoming patterns differed, the ARK bottom synchronized with the general market’s bottom. Those conditions were born from the deeply oversold conditions that arrived in June. At that time, I interpreted the turmoil as the early days of … Read more