ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The Market Breadth Summary Market rotation is improving participation, but a fresh warning from market breadth keeps me cautious. Small caps and defensives are attracting capital while tech weakness quietly undermines leadership. I remain neutral after AT50 reversed from overbought levels, issuing a fresh warning despite bullish index trends. The disconnect between strong indices and … Read more
Stock Market Analysis Summary The market initially welcomed the Fed’s rate cut, but rising long-term yields recreated the same headwinds seen after the October rate cut. A tired AI trade emerged as Oracle, Broadcom, NVIDIA, and semiconductors sold off sharply, pressuring market breadth. Major indices showed signs of topping despite prior strength, especially the NASDAQ … Read more
Stock Market Analysis Summary Major U.S. equity indices extended gains after a strong end to November, supported by expectations of a December Fed rate cut. Market breadth indicators (AT50, AT200) improved but failed at primary downtrend resistance, signaling lingering internal weakness. Small caps (IWM) outperformed with a breakout to all-time highs, while several major tech … Read more
Stock Market Commentary China and the U.S. have an unstable relationship. Each country needs the other and yet they cannot co-exist peacefully in the global economic or political sphere, especially when nativist flames and security alarms are burning brightly. That lingering instability came to prominence one more time after trade negotiations broke down (yet again) … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market leaned into a melt-up as a constant stream of IPOs signaled risk-on appetite even as a massive downward revisions in jobs in the 12 months through March, 2025 implied more than expected economic weakness ahead. Rate cuts beckon as a result of this broadening weakness, and Wall Street has … Read more