ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary Housing starts have remained above pre-pandemic highs while new home sales have spent much of the last year below pre-pandemic highs. In April, new home sales finally dropped back to the early pandemic trough. The South is even at pandemic era lows. The resulting mismatch between starts and sales has … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In “Marching Under the Shadow of Recession Fears – Housing Market Review” I spent some time discussing the impact of the Fed’s move to normalize monetary policy. That impact continues to ripple through the housing data. Yet, individual home builders are not yet reporting much impact from rising rates. They … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary An aggressively hawkish Federal Reserve has changed the game for the housing market. After falling behind the curve and failing to start the rate hike cycle last year, America’s central bank is now desperately scrambling to catch up without causing a recession. The housing market is ground zero for the … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I discussed the prospects for the impact of higher interest rates. I concluded there could be little impact on prices. Those dynamics could soon be overshadowed by the impacts of a global economic war and the declining sentiment that comes from watching the misery … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary A hawkish Federal Reserve has changed the game for the housing market. At first, I thought the normalization in monetary policy would generate a “settling in” for the housing market. However with inventories tight, a scarcity in available labor, rising material costs, and a dysfunctional supply chain, higher rates may … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary The story of housing remained relatively steady for most of the year: low inventory, rising prices, strong demand, low interest rates, and the desire for more space, especially in the suburbs. In my last Housing Market Review, I explored the market as a nexus of economic recovery and inflation. In … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary The home builder stock buying season started on a firm foundation. November delivered strong follow-through across a broad range of housing-related stocks even as the housing data settles into a period of normalization. Demand for new and existing homes is well off last year’s heated levels. Supply remains extremely tight … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In the last Housing Market Review, I described the growing calm in the housing market data that contrast with the sell-off in home builder stocks. That sell-off worked in sync with the general stock market. The rebound in October also worked in parallel with the general stock market. As a … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary The housing market’s comfortable calm continued into September even as the stock prices of home builders raced downward. A general sell-off in the stock market ensnared housing-related stocks. Yet, the housing data reported in September showed little change from the prior month. While home builder stocks ignore the calm in … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary Despite more evidence of slowing conditions in the housing market, home builder stocks remained relatively resilient in August. The underlying dynamics of demand remain in place even as housing prices remain lofty and continue to conjure up images of a housing bubble for market commentators and pundits. A supportive Federal … Read more