The Climax of A Parabolic Move: The Case of the Turkish Lira

Desperate times bring out the creativity. On Thursday, January 12, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) effectively tightened monetary policy by canceling its weekly auction used to fund banks. On top of this move, Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, likened Turkey’s forex predicament to a fight against economic terrorism. Deutsche Bank (DB) … Read more

The Turkish Lira: A Currency In Freefall, A Pressed Central Bank

“The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) closely monitors the excessive volatility in the markets and will take necessary measures against unhealthy price formations that are inconsistent with economic fundamentals. Banks’ borrowing limits at the Interbank Money Market established within the CBRT have been lowered to TL 22 billion to be effective as … Read more

T2108 Update (December 19, 2016) – The S&P 500 Makes A Feeble Return to Overbought Conditions

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Turkey’s First Rate Hike In Nearly 3 Years Fails to Stem Lira’s Losses

“The slowdown in aggregate demand contributes to the fall in inflation. Yet, exchange rate movements due to recently heightened global uncertainty and volatility pose upside risks on the inflation outlook. The Committee decided to implement monetary tightening to contain adverse impact of these developments on expectations and the pricing behavior.” – The Central Bank of … Read more

T2108 Update (November 28, 2016) – The S&P 500 Takes A Breather On Overbought’s Edge

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (October 28, 2016) – Divergences Weigh Further on the Stock Market

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (September 30, 2016) – Churn: A Lot of September Noise for the S&P 500 and No Bite

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Awaiting the Next Sell Signal As the S&P 500 Enters the Season’s “Danger Zone”

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 8, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost a year ago, I wrote about an interesting signal that tends to accompany a significant top in the S&P 500 (SPY) – “significant” meaning preceding a sell-off of 10% or … Read more

T2108 Update (September 21, 2016) – Volatility Plunges As the Stock Market Eagerly Celebrates Fed Tentativeness

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more