T2108 Update (August 12, 2015) – Amplified Chop

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Correct Narrative On U.S. Wage Growth for the Second Quarter: The Dollar Recovers

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 2, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) It seems odd to fear that wage growth is slumping in the U.S. with increasing momentum supporting minimum wage hikes across the country and through many industries. Yet, wage data on … Read more

A Busted Stock Trader In China: Real Life Pain

On July 29, 2015, Nightly Business Report included a poignant segment featuring the painful story of a busted stock trader in China. The path from hope (greed?) to despair sounds like a classic with a twist. At least this particular trader took too many cues from the Chinese government, a government whose policies have clearly … Read more

T2108 Update (July 28, 2015) – An Important Stock Market Turnaround

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Commodities Crash Accelerates: Scenarios for Trading Oil

Several authors have pointed out the difficulties in fashioning trades to take advantage of the movement in oil prices (for a recent example, see “Is Gasoline The Smart Oil Play? UGA Vs. USO“). Analyses counting off the bullish and bearish arguments on oil can fill many tomes. For example, there is fear of a drop … Read more

Illinois Flood Disaster Does Not Prevent Corn from Rejoining the Collapse in Commodities

Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner asked the U.S. Department of Agriculture to declare a disaster in areas of the state hit hard by flooding. He should have asked for disaster relief on behalf of all the nation’s corn. Illinois was the nation’s #2 producer of corn in 2014, but the potential damage from on-going flooding in … Read more

The U.S. Dollar and the British Pound Fail At Important 2015 Milestones

To start this week, I pointed out that the U.S. dollar index (UUP) and the British pound (FXB) had tagged important milestones for this year. The U.S. dollar index finally rallied back to the downtrend line established from its multi-year high set in March. The British pound finally cracked the 0.70 support level against the … Read more

T2108 Update (July 10, 2015) – A Light Appears Behind the Pressure Cooker

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Apple Finally Flips To Oversold

Apple (AAPL) was stuck in a trading range for the past five months. For much of that trading range, AAPL neatly pivoted around its 50-day moving average (DMA). I noticed these combined behaviors starting around early May. I have written about them and traded them. Today, July 9th, AAPL finally dropped out of the trading … Read more

T2108 Update (June 25, 2015) – Embrace the Moving Averages

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more