T2108 Update (January 9, 2017) – Overbought Conditions End With the NASDAQ Leaning Against Bearish Hints

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (January 4, 2017) – A Tantalizing Day for the Stock Market

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (January 3, 2017) – The S&P 500 Makes Another Tentative Return to Overbought Conditions

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Housing Market Review – Fed Fallout Overshadows Strong Data (December, 2016)

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in November for October, 2016. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was experiencing its first post-election pullback. I stayed focused on the strong housing data and treated the episode as a buying opportunity. Over a month later, the market is still ignoring the strong … Read more

T2108 Update (December 28, 2016) – Caution Confirmed: The S&P 500 Ends A Feeble Overbought Period

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Forex Critical: Yen Bears Take Over, Euro Bears Continue Shrinking

A little over two weeks ago, I wrote “Yen Bulls Finally Back Down” to mark an important milestone: for the first time in a year, currency speculators went net short the Japanese yen (FXY). I closed out my long USD/JPY position and waited for the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting as well as confirmation of the … Read more

T2108 Update (December 14, 2016) – A Fed Hangover Bursts the Overbought Rally

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

A Euro Flush: Buyers Take Back Control For Now

By now, traders should know the drill on these highly anticipated events that promise dire potential consequences… Traders build positions in anticipation of or to hedge against the potentially “adverse” outcome of the highly anticipated event. An outcome interpreted as adverse occurs and markets respond accordingly. The expected response to an adverse outcome turns out … Read more

Yen Bulls Finally Back Down

A full seven months ago I speculated that “maximum yen bullishness” was reaching feverish levels. As a result, I concluded that a bottom had to be imminent in USD/JPY even as the momentum at that time seemed to point to that bottom happening around 7% lower at 100. I acknowledged the potential for making an … Read more

The British Pound’s Latest Brexit Surge Could Signal the Next Sentiment Change

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 2, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Before Thursday’s open for trading in the U.S. (December 1, 2016), the British pound (FXB) experienced another one of those “quick trigger” moves in reaction to Brexit-related headlines. I use “quick … Read more